[oldalum]

most people were going to do what they were going to do anyways, and that the actual stay at home order provided only marginal benefit.

I think the benefit was in the timing of the first order in the Bay Area, and was significant because of the effect of each day on exponential spread. That first order educated the nation about what was needed and probably had a major effect on many people around the country voluntarily limiting their contact with people outside the house. The subsequent orders in other places probably were more marginal in effect. Had there been no SiP orders at all, voluntary isolation would have happened more slowly.

[oldalum]

most people were going to do what they were going to do anyways, and that the actual stay at home order provided only marginal benefit.

I think the benefit was in the timing of the first order in the Bay Area, and was significant because of the effect of each day on exponential spread. That first order educated the nation about what was needed and probably had a major effect on many people around the country voluntarily limiting their contact with people outside the house. The subsequent orders in other places probably were more marginal in effect. Had there been no SiP orders at all, voluntary isolation would have happened more slowly.