[burger]

Yes, the ‘don’t tread on me” mentality has absolutely led to spread. Claiming New York doesn’t have that, but look at their numbers, as an example, is misguided, because New York didn’t resist wearing masks and stayed in lock down with great discipline. Now look at New York’s cases declining. Compare to states like Texas, Florida, Georgia, Arizona. Those states have large populations who didn’t take precautions because they see mask wearing as a political issue. I have friends who have told me this. So just because we don’t see mask wearing and distancing as a political issue, some absolutely do.

The data says otherwise.  Weekly deaths in those states have been flat since April with the possible exception of Arizona, and even there, deaths peaked three weeks ago.  There was a small jump in deaths last week, but even then, it didn't reach previous highs.  California, has broadly the same pattern.

BC, I think you're missing the point.  First, increases in deaths in multiple states is worrisome in itself.  Second, many states (and some entire regions: https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/stat...36/photo/1) are showing increases in cases and/or positive rates from tests.  That's even scarier.  If the increase in case numbers is real, deaths will take a few weeks to catch up.

There is plenty of reason to be concerned that things are getting worse now.  If we are at the beginning of another cycle of rapid spread, we'd expect the numbers to still be relatively low and for there to be some noise.  So, nothing is certain yet.  But if these trends continue, then we're in trouble.

[burger]

Yes, the ‘don’t tread on me” mentality has absolutely led to spread. Claiming New York doesn’t have that, but look at their numbers, as an example, is misguided, because New York didn’t resist wearing masks and stayed in lock down with great discipline. Now look at New York’s cases declining. Compare to states like Texas, Florida, Georgia, Arizona. Those states have large populations who didn’t take precautions because they see mask wearing as a political issue. I have friends who have told me this. So just because we don’t see mask wearing and distancing as a political issue, some absolutely do.

The data says otherwise.  Weekly deaths in those states have been flat since April with the possible exception of Arizona, and even there, deaths peaked three weeks ago.  There was a small jump in deaths last week, but even then, it didn't reach previous highs.  California, has broadly the same pattern.

BC, I think you're missing the point.  First, increases in deaths in multiple states is worrisome in itself.  Second, many states (and some entire regions: https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/stat...36/photo/1) are showing increases in cases and/or positive rates from tests.  That's even scarier.  If the increase in case numbers is real, deaths will take a few weeks to catch up.

There is plenty of reason to be concerned that things are getting worse now.  If we are at the beginning of another cycle of rapid spread, we'd expect the numbers to still be relatively low and for there to be some noise.  So, nothing is certain yet.  But if these trends continue, then we're in trouble.