[dabigv13]

An interesting trend for me seems to be that places with an early large peak, don't seem to have a later, bigger peak. NYC is one example, but on a smaller scale this applies within SoCal. My hospital was relatively hard hit for LA, nearing ICU capacity in early April, before dropping and now at a pretty steady low state. Some other LA hospitals have a similar pattern. But places in Orange County that didn't have large early peaks have had consistent growth and are at their highest patient load of the pandemic now, though still they are only about as bad as we are now. Other parts of LA as well that were spared early, are now as bad as they've been. The rate of rise is not as steep as ours was in April, and they aren't close to capacity, but still climbing. 

It certainly is not due to any herd immunity effect. Still far too few people have been exposed. Perhaps in harder hit areas, more people had friends or relatives that were affected, and so modified their behavior more. I definitely think this can explain NYC's rapid drop to an extent, but less convinced about SoCal because our incidence even in harder hit areas is still very low.

Overall I think SoCal probably hit our prevalence nadir in late May, and it seems we will continue to steadily climb. More reopening will obviously fuel more rapid rise. We do still seem to be in good shape for beds but I imagine we will need to be better about implementing masking or we will need to reinstate some lockdowns at some point in the future or we will fill up our ICUs just like NYC did. Only difference is it will be a more slow motion crisis. Seems Arizona will experience it before we do.

[dabigv13]

An interesting trend for me seems to be that places with an early large peak, don't seem to have a later, bigger peak. NYC is one example, but on a smaller scale this applies within SoCal. My hospital was relatively hard hit for LA, nearing ICU capacity in early April, before dropping and now at a pretty steady low state. Some other LA hospitals have a similar pattern. But places in Orange County that didn't have large early peaks have had consistent growth and are at their highest patient load of the pandemic now, though still they are only about as bad as we are now. Other parts of LA as well that were spared early, are now as bad as they've been. The rate of rise is not as steep as ours was in April, and they aren't close to capacity, but still climbing. 

It certainly is not due to any herd immunity effect. Still far too few people have been exposed. Perhaps in harder hit areas, more people had friends or relatives that were affected, and so modified their behavior more. I definitely think this can explain NYC's rapid drop to an extent, but less convinced about SoCal because our incidence even in harder hit areas is still very low.

Overall I think SoCal probably hit our prevalence nadir in late May, and it seems we will continue to steadily climb. More reopening will obviously fuel more rapid rise. We do still seem to be in good shape for beds but I imagine we will need to be better about implementing masking or we will need to reinstate some lockdowns at some point in the future or we will fill up our ICUs just like NYC did. Only difference is it will be a more slow motion crisis. Seems Arizona will experience it before we do.