[M T]

Overall I think SoCal probably hit our prevalence nadir in late May, and it seems we will continue to steadily climb. More reopening will obviously fuel more rapid rise. We do still seem to be in good shape for beds but I imagine we will need to be better about implementing masking or we will need to reinstate some lockdowns at some point in the future or we will fill up our ICUs just like NYC did. Only difference is it will be a more slow motion crisis. Seems Arizona will experience it before we do.

I have family in SoCal, so I keep watching the numbers climb.

I sure hope I'm wrong, but I feel like I'm on an upper story room on a beach, watching the water withdraw back into the ocean, and yelling to the people below, "Run for the hills!," knowing that by the time they look up and see what's heading toward them, too many won't escape.

I would so like to be found to be a fool.   The stable hospitalization rates in L.A. give me hope that I'm wrong.  But the testing numbers look to be a harbinger.

Orange County doesn't publish percent positive results on their tests (and, it appears they use raw tests, not % positive on people).  I ran their numbers yesterday and they're around 5% (a week's average, from data a week after the week's end) versus under 4% a month ago. 
L.A.County current numbers show under 6% for the first week of May, 7.89% for the week ending May 31 and 11.15% for the week ending June 7 (the 11% will come down as more tests come in, but they'll likely be pushing or exceeding 10%). 
San Diego County shows 3% (their 2wk rolling average). 
Santa Clara County was about 1.1% a week ago versus 1.3% a month earlier.   

I also worry about people evacuating the populous areas of SoCal with climbing numbers and taking the disease with them to the more rural parts of California.

[M T]

Overall I think SoCal probably hit our prevalence nadir in late May, and it seems we will continue to steadily climb. More reopening will obviously fuel more rapid rise. We do still seem to be in good shape for beds but I imagine we will need to be better about implementing masking or we will need to reinstate some lockdowns at some point in the future or we will fill up our ICUs just like NYC did. Only difference is it will be a more slow motion crisis. Seems Arizona will experience it before we do.

I have family in SoCal, so I keep watching the numbers climb.

I sure hope I'm wrong, but I feel like I'm on an upper story room on a beach, watching the water withdraw back into the ocean, and yelling to the people below, "Run for the hills!," knowing that by the time they look up and see what's heading toward them, too many won't escape.

I would so like to be found to be a fool.   The stable hospitalization rates in L.A. give me hope that I'm wrong.  But the testing numbers look to be a harbinger.

Orange County doesn't publish percent positive results on their tests (and, it appears they use raw tests, not % positive on people).  I ran their numbers yesterday and they're around 5% (a week's average, from data a week after the week's end) versus under 4% a month ago. 
L.A.County current numbers show under 6% for the first week of May, 7.89% for the week ending May 31 and 11.15% for the week ending June 7 (the 11% will come down as more tests come in, but they'll likely be pushing or exceeding 10%). 
San Diego County shows 3% (their 2wk rolling average). 
Santa Clara County was about 1.1% a week ago versus 1.3% a month earlier.   

I also worry about people evacuating the populous areas of SoCal with climbing numbers and taking the disease with them to the more rural parts of California.