[BostonCard]

Things can really devolve quickly on here. The best science should win the day but the person who argued that there was an offset with the protesters in having suppressed others from going out doesn't seem to me to be strengthening his or her argument. That was what I was referring to with cherry picking and I think it still stands.

I mean, the argument was based on an NBER paper with actual data from 315 of the largest US cities.  And I said that I wasn’t sure I bought it. And I meant that genuinely. While the mechanism they ascribe seems plausible, I’m not yet convinced that the effect on non-protest goers is as large as they find.  But I thought it was at least an interesting theory. I will post if I see a paper that shows that the protests were a risk factor (and I welcome anyone who finds one to do so). I would hope that if contact tracing did find a cluster related to the protests that it would be reported.  Whether you support the protests or not, I’d rather future decisions be informed by data, and not priors.

BC

[BostonCard]

Things can really devolve quickly on here. The best science should win the day but the person who argued that there was an offset with the protesters in having suppressed others from going out doesn't seem to me to be strengthening his or her argument. That was what I was referring to with cherry picking and I think it still stands.

I mean, the argument was based on an NBER paper with actual data from 315 of the largest US cities.  And I said that I wasn’t sure I bought it. And I meant that genuinely. While the mechanism they ascribe seems plausible, I’m not yet convinced that the effect on non-protest goers is as large as they find.  But I thought it was at least an interesting theory. I will post if I see a paper that shows that the protests were a risk factor (and I welcome anyone who finds one to do so). I would hope that if contact tracing did find a cluster related to the protests that it would be reported.  Whether you support the protests or not, I’d rather future decisions be informed by data, and not priors.

BC