[Goose]

A relative basis is not a good measure. The only thing that matters is how the Bay Area is doing vis a vis an R of 1.  If it’s above one, it will eventually spiral out of control; if it is below 1, it will stay under control. That we are closer to 1 right now than other places only means the peak will be later.  But we will still get there.

BC

Yep. A slow death rather than a fast one. We really need to figure out what is happening here. Contact tracers should be able to tell us. It it out-of-area people visiting? Is it family gatherings? Where are we leaking?

I think it would really help shed light on how the testing and tracing is going if we knew what percentage of positive tests were from people in quarantine already. If it is a high percentage, we may be making progress. If it isn't, we are REALLY in trouble, because it is community spread time again and our containment has failed.

[Goose]

A relative basis is not a good measure. The only thing that matters is how the Bay Area is doing vis a vis an R of 1.  If it’s above one, it will eventually spiral out of control; if it is below 1, it will stay under control. That we are closer to 1 right now than other places only means the peak will be later.  But we will still get there.

BC

Yep. A slow death rather than a fast one. We really need to figure out what is happening here. Contact tracers should be able to tell us. It it out-of-area people visiting? Is it family gatherings? Where are we leaking?

I think it would really help shed light on how the testing and tracing is going if we knew what percentage of positive tests were from people in quarantine already. If it is a high percentage, we may be making progress. If it isn't, we are REALLY in trouble, because it is community spread time again and our containment has failed.