07-20-2020, 11:45 AM
It doesn't seem the hurdle that matters is evoking an immune response. That seems relatively easy. The one that does matter is how long that evoked immune response will last, and obviously any side effects.
I'm certainly no vaccine expert by any means, but I'd guess these things are like wide funnels with very narrow exits. Meaning, there are probably many, many candidates that perform at a basic level, but very few that have what it takes to make it to approval for human use. A metaphor might be the number of college football players versus the number who make it to the NFL. The NCAA's own numbers say it's like 1.6% that perform at that level. Guessing vaccines have similarly small rates of adequate achievement.
I'm certainly no vaccine expert by any means, but I'd guess these things are like wide funnels with very narrow exits. Meaning, there are probably many, many candidates that perform at a basic level, but very few that have what it takes to make it to approval for human use. A metaphor might be the number of college football players versus the number who make it to the NFL. The NCAA's own numbers say it's like 1.6% that perform at that level. Guessing vaccines have similarly small rates of adequate achievement.