07-20-2020, 02:05 PM
About 70% of vaccines succeed in phase I clinical trials. Conditional on success in a phase I trial, about 20% succeed in phase 2 clinical trials (so about 14% of candidates succeed overall through phase 2). Conditional on making it that far, a bit over 80% succeed in phase 3 clinical trials (12% overall). Note that this is overall success, and includes a few diseases (HIV, TB, malaria) for which vaccine development has been very elusive. As best we can tell, SARS-CoV-2 is not expected to be tricky in the way those diseases is.
That being said, we are about to enter the narrow part of the funnel, to use your analogy, and I expect us to lose a couple of the candidates in the next phase of trials.
https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/1....2015.1073
BC
That being said, we are about to enter the narrow part of the funnel, to use your analogy, and I expect us to lose a couple of the candidates in the next phase of trials.
https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/1....2015.1073
BC