[needle]

I believe that when the Big 10, Pac and SEC announced the postponement of their seasons, they were pinning their hopes on a big drop in cases by the first week of September.

Is such a drop still possible? While Texas and Florida have covid-19 testing rates above 15%, many states in Big 10 country have much lower positivity rates. In Michigan, for example, the covid-19 test positivity rate is 2.5%. Other Big 10 states are higher. But an optimist could say that perhaps they could come down given a few weeks time: Ohio, 4.9%;  Illinois, 4.1%; Wisconsin, 6.2%; Iowa, 9.6%.

So, despite the news this morning, I would be very, very surprised if the Big 10 doesn't give it another week or two before making a decision on pulling the plug on the football this fall.

(There are, I believe, other possibilities that *might* come into play, like trying to split the season between fall and spring. But because I haven't heard anything like that actually reported, I'd say this is very unlikely.)

Ultimately, the higher covid-19 rates in other states, especially the south, likely mean that multiple conferences will pull the plug and then all will follow to preserve the chance of a CFB football playoff in the spring.

But there are other possibilities...it is still possible, imo, that there will be some Power 5 games this fall.

[needle]

I believe that when the Big 10, Pac and SEC announced the postponement of their seasons, they were pinning their hopes on a big drop in cases by the first week of September.

Is such a drop still possible? While Texas and Florida have covid-19 testing rates above 15%, many states in Big 10 country have much lower positivity rates. In Michigan, for example, the covid-19 test positivity rate is 2.5%. Other Big 10 states are higher. But an optimist could say that perhaps they could come down given a few weeks time: Ohio, 4.9%;  Illinois, 4.1%; Wisconsin, 6.2%; Iowa, 9.6%.

So, despite the news this morning, I would be very, very surprised if the Big 10 doesn't give it another week or two before making a decision on pulling the plug on the football this fall.

(There are, I believe, other possibilities that *might* come into play, like trying to split the season between fall and spring. But because I haven't heard anything like that actually reported, I'd say this is very unlikely.)

Ultimately, the higher covid-19 rates in other states, especially the south, likely mean that multiple conferences will pull the plug and then all will follow to preserve the chance of a CFB football playoff in the spring.

But there are other possibilities...it is still possible, imo, that there will be some Power 5 games this fall.