[Goose]

Twice as many people died in the month of July as in the entirety of the H1N1 influenza pandemic.  It is a very interesting counterfactual.  Had the case fatality rate been 1% as with COVID-19, would the response have been the same?  Would we still have had 60 million cases, and as a result 600,000 deaths, or would the pandemic have resulted in shutdowns comparable to or even more stringent than what we have seen with COVID-19

Hard to say. There was no Italy in front of us at the time. Also, in the first month the country did something like 6000 tests total if I remember correctly. While our testing sucked this time, we at least finally sort of ramped up. With the technology available in 2009, it would have been very ugly I fear.

The counterfactual with Hillary is also interesting.  I suspect we would have had a more consistent and aggressive message coming from Washington, but I wonder if it would have nonetheless been as ineffectual.  I feel like the types of protests that we saw against shutdowns and masks in places like Michigan would have been many-fold higher if the message were coming from a President Clinton.



Ironically, I think in the same way that only Nixon could go to China, I wonder if only Trump could have been an effective medium for a forceful response to the pandemic.  Alas, we won't get to find out what would have happened had Trump tried.



BC

Interesting thoughts. I think it probable your ideas here are correct. I for one don't think the Governor of Florida became an idiot because he had an idiot leading the country. I think he is an idiot all on his own. He would have fought HRC tooth and nail.

[Goose]

Twice as many people died in the month of July as in the entirety of the H1N1 influenza pandemic.  It is a very interesting counterfactual.  Had the case fatality rate been 1% as with COVID-19, would the response have been the same?  Would we still have had 60 million cases, and as a result 600,000 deaths, or would the pandemic have resulted in shutdowns comparable to or even more stringent than what we have seen with COVID-19

Hard to say. There was no Italy in front of us at the time. Also, in the first month the country did something like 6000 tests total if I remember correctly. While our testing sucked this time, we at least finally sort of ramped up. With the technology available in 2009, it would have been very ugly I fear.

The counterfactual with Hillary is also interesting.  I suspect we would have had a more consistent and aggressive message coming from Washington, but I wonder if it would have nonetheless been as ineffectual.  I feel like the types of protests that we saw against shutdowns and masks in places like Michigan would have been many-fold higher if the message were coming from a President Clinton.



Ironically, I think in the same way that only Nixon could go to China, I wonder if only Trump could have been an effective medium for a forceful response to the pandemic.  Alas, we won't get to find out what would have happened had Trump tried.



BC

Interesting thoughts. I think it probable your ideas here are correct. I for one don't think the Governor of Florida became an idiot because he had an idiot leading the country. I think he is an idiot all on his own. He would have fought HRC tooth and nail.