[Farm93]

If in March I was given a choice between  
Group 1 - South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Germany and Norway  
Group 2 - Brazil, Mexico and Russia

I would have picked Group 1 for sure, and would have never imagined we would actually be less successful than the countries in that Group 2 list.

Your analysis is reductive. That hypothetical choice is harder than you make it sound.

First, where would North Korea fall in your hypothetical groups?  I'd have probably gone along with them. They have such a strong leader who trusts his instincts and is unfairly attacked by the media. That would sort of break the tie for me between Groups 1 and 2. 

Second, your analysis hyper-focuses on masks and lockdowns, completely overlooking another important policy X-factor - Hydroxychloroquine. 

Lastly, define "successful". The stock market hit an all-time high this week, so all is well, right?!

The market is doing great.   The easy money is doing great things, as long as China keeps investing in the USA the easy money will stay cheap enough.   While Russia can influence the election with Facebook and Twitter, President Xi can do far more to destabilize the USA by declaring China will divest its USA holdings.

North Korea would be in the incomplete information.   We can call all of them Group 3.   

I would happily spend a few months in any of the listed Group 1 countries and really would worry about spending time in any of the Group 2 countries.  

Tonight I saw ESPN was broadcasting a HS football game from Alabama.  And in the stands there were thousands of members of the community screaming support for the kids.   Generally the fans in the stands and the coaches on the sidelines were mask-free.   I would definitely take any city in any of my Group 1 countries for the next 4-6 months over Tuscaloosa.   

Then I saw that the University of Alabama is living in denial.    1000 cases with ~500 in just three days!!!  I would still take Tuscaloosa over Pyongyang but in a few days I might believe the cities in my Group 2 list will have fewer COVID issues than the neighborhoods around the University of Alabama. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/educ...662754002/ 

For those living in Bama please do your best to stay safe.  Wear masks and avoid unnecessary large group meetings.

[Farm93]

If in March I was given a choice between  
Group 1 - South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Germany and Norway  
Group 2 - Brazil, Mexico and Russia

I would have picked Group 1 for sure, and would have never imagined we would actually be less successful than the countries in that Group 2 list.

Your analysis is reductive. That hypothetical choice is harder than you make it sound.

First, where would North Korea fall in your hypothetical groups?  I'd have probably gone along with them. They have such a strong leader who trusts his instincts and is unfairly attacked by the media. That would sort of break the tie for me between Groups 1 and 2. 

Second, your analysis hyper-focuses on masks and lockdowns, completely overlooking another important policy X-factor - Hydroxychloroquine. 

Lastly, define "successful". The stock market hit an all-time high this week, so all is well, right?!

The market is doing great.   The easy money is doing great things, as long as China keeps investing in the USA the easy money will stay cheap enough.   While Russia can influence the election with Facebook and Twitter, President Xi can do far more to destabilize the USA by declaring China will divest its USA holdings.

North Korea would be in the incomplete information.   We can call all of them Group 3.   

I would happily spend a few months in any of the listed Group 1 countries and really would worry about spending time in any of the Group 2 countries.  

Tonight I saw ESPN was broadcasting a HS football game from Alabama.  And in the stands there were thousands of members of the community screaming support for the kids.   Generally the fans in the stands and the coaches on the sidelines were mask-free.   I would definitely take any city in any of my Group 1 countries for the next 4-6 months over Tuscaloosa.   

Then I saw that the University of Alabama is living in denial.    1000 cases with ~500 in just three days!!!  I would still take Tuscaloosa over Pyongyang but in a few days I might believe the cities in my Group 2 list will have fewer COVID issues than the neighborhoods around the University of Alabama. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/educ...662754002/ 

For those living in Bama please do your best to stay safe.  Wear masks and avoid unnecessary large group meetings.