[M T]

A post I made earlier was too long for the Cardboard so I had to split it into 2 posts, but then the software merged them into a single post.  Now it won't take an edit for it.  Sigh....

Updating the UA & Auburn numbers in that post.  Note that Auburn changed their week this week, so we seem to be missing a couple of days (which at the daily rate of 0.38% of the students per day, would be another 162 cases for the 2 days) and started to include employees as well as students.    6% of the students at Auburn in under 3 weeks, with the rate still growing.    I note that Auburn is apparently auditing their numbers (but if there is an update, it isn't publicly available that I see.)

University of Alabama (students @ Tuscaloosa only)
Reentry cases (tests within 2 weeks of return to school)
             311  (29,938 tested)  1.0% positive
Date range  Cases
1/1 - 8/18   158
8/19 - 8/24  562  (6 days; 0.31% per day)  Classes began Aug 19.
8/25 - 8/27  481  (3 days; 0.54% per day)
8/28 - 9/3   846  (7 days; 0.40% per day)
9/4 - 9/10   294  (7 days; 0.14% per day)
9/11 - 9/17 119 (7 days; 0.06% per day)
For a total of 2302 since classes started.  (2302 is 7.7% of 29,938)

Auburn University (students @ main campus only)
Reentry cases:
              859    (21,315 tested)  4.0% positive
Date range   Cases
Aug 8-14       32  (7 days)
Aug 15-21     202  (7 days; 0.14% per day)    Classes began Aug 17
Aug 22-28     490  (7 days; 0.33% per day)
Auburn shifted their week to align with the start of classes.  But this now includes students and employees at the main campus. (The % are relative to the number of students.)
Aug 17-23     244  (7 days; 0.16% per day)    Classes began Aug 17
Aug 23-30     550  (7 days; 0.37% per day)
Aug 31-Sep 6  577  (7 days; 0.38% per day)  [Post updated 9/9/20]
Sep 7- Sep 13 108  (7 days; 0.072% per day)  [Post updated 9/15/20]
  1479 since classes started.  (1479 is 6.9% of 21.315)
  10% total in about 42 days.

As of 9/14, Auburn reports they are testing 800-1000 per week in sentinel testing.  These will be self-administered tests, apparently antigen tests (12.5% false negative rate, I believe).

Week ending Sept. 13, 2020: 1.8% of 329 tests
Week ending Sept. 6, 2020: 6.4% of 621 tests

So, adjusting for 12.5% false negative rate, a better estimate of the active positive rate would be 2.1% (9/13) and 7.3% (9/6).

[M T]

A post I made earlier was too long for the Cardboard so I had to split it into 2 posts, but then the software merged them into a single post.  Now it won't take an edit for it.  Sigh....

Updating the UA & Auburn numbers in that post.  Note that Auburn changed their week this week, so we seem to be missing a couple of days (which at the daily rate of 0.38% of the students per day, would be another 162 cases for the 2 days) and started to include employees as well as students.    6% of the students at Auburn in under 3 weeks, with the rate still growing.    I note that Auburn is apparently auditing their numbers (but if there is an update, it isn't publicly available that I see.)

University of Alabama (students @ Tuscaloosa only)
Reentry cases (tests within 2 weeks of return to school)
             311  (29,938 tested)  1.0% positive
Date range  Cases
1/1 - 8/18   158
8/19 - 8/24  562  (6 days; 0.31% per day)  Classes began Aug 19.
8/25 - 8/27  481  (3 days; 0.54% per day)
8/28 - 9/3   846  (7 days; 0.40% per day)
9/4 - 9/10   294  (7 days; 0.14% per day)
9/11 - 9/17 119 (7 days; 0.06% per day)
For a total of 2302 since classes started.  (2302 is 7.7% of 29,938)

Auburn University (students @ main campus only)
Reentry cases:
              859    (21,315 tested)  4.0% positive
Date range   Cases
Aug 8-14       32  (7 days)
Aug 15-21     202  (7 days; 0.14% per day)    Classes began Aug 17
Aug 22-28     490  (7 days; 0.33% per day)
Auburn shifted their week to align with the start of classes.  But this now includes students and employees at the main campus. (The % are relative to the number of students.)
Aug 17-23     244  (7 days; 0.16% per day)    Classes began Aug 17
Aug 23-30     550  (7 days; 0.37% per day)
Aug 31-Sep 6  577  (7 days; 0.38% per day)  [Post updated 9/9/20]
Sep 7- Sep 13 108  (7 days; 0.072% per day)  [Post updated 9/15/20]
  1479 since classes started.  (1479 is 6.9% of 21.315)
  10% total in about 42 days.

As of 9/14, Auburn reports they are testing 800-1000 per week in sentinel testing.  These will be self-administered tests, apparently antigen tests (12.5% false negative rate, I believe).

Week ending Sept. 13, 2020: 1.8% of 329 tests
Week ending Sept. 6, 2020: 6.4% of 621 tests

So, adjusting for 12.5% false negative rate, a better estimate of the active positive rate would be 2.1% (9/13) and 7.3% (9/6).