[Farm93]

Even if one believes that Trump did not inform the public about the danger that the COVID-19 virus could pose in order to "avoid panic", that can't explain why he did not actively pass that information on to the State and County authorities. Since the local level would see the disease first, giving them a warning seems only prudent. It may be that in this day and age the idea they could also keep it confidential is off the table, but it is very useful to pass a warning order to the troops if you expect them to respond quickly and properly. If it never happens, no harm done.

I think it probable that Trump really just didn't believe it. He had been told that it could happen, but not that it had already happened. If he did believe it was going to happen for certain, withholding the warning from the States makes no sense. It could only make things worse. Maybe Cuomo would have believed De Blasio from the start and not waited three days, for instance. The other possibility is that Trump figured he was doomed anyway if it did happen so try denial.

I will go with USA hubris couple with stubbornness.

Trump likely did believe the "China virus" thing was deadly...IN CHINA.
He incorrectly assumed that the virus would likely stay in China and/or Asia.
He then made a bet that it would not impact the USA in any meaningful way and therefore made a confident declaration that everything would be fine in the USA.  It was a reasonable bet given recent virus history.
If correct, downplaying would avoid an election year distractions and would keep the stock market soaring to new heights.
So all logical enough IMHO.   Not super presidential, but in the predictable realm for President Trump.

However, he also refuses to admit he made bad calls.  (Remember the hurricane path map with a sharpie mark)
By late April it was pretty clear he bet incorrectly, but no way he'd admit that.
So instead he doubled down on the downplay path and stated to Woodward (and presumably others) that downplaying was still the correct strategy.

I would wish for a different approach, but I understand how this path became our reality.

[Farm93]

Even if one believes that Trump did not inform the public about the danger that the COVID-19 virus could pose in order to "avoid panic", that can't explain why he did not actively pass that information on to the State and County authorities. Since the local level would see the disease first, giving them a warning seems only prudent. It may be that in this day and age the idea they could also keep it confidential is off the table, but it is very useful to pass a warning order to the troops if you expect them to respond quickly and properly. If it never happens, no harm done.

I think it probable that Trump really just didn't believe it. He had been told that it could happen, but not that it had already happened. If he did believe it was going to happen for certain, withholding the warning from the States makes no sense. It could only make things worse. Maybe Cuomo would have believed De Blasio from the start and not waited three days, for instance. The other possibility is that Trump figured he was doomed anyway if it did happen so try denial.

I will go with USA hubris couple with stubbornness.

Trump likely did believe the "China virus" thing was deadly...IN CHINA.
He incorrectly assumed that the virus would likely stay in China and/or Asia.
He then made a bet that it would not impact the USA in any meaningful way and therefore made a confident declaration that everything would be fine in the USA.  It was a reasonable bet given recent virus history.
If correct, downplaying would avoid an election year distractions and would keep the stock market soaring to new heights.
So all logical enough IMHO.   Not super presidential, but in the predictable realm for President Trump.

However, he also refuses to admit he made bad calls.  (Remember the hurricane path map with a sharpie mark)
By late April it was pretty clear he bet incorrectly, but no way he'd admit that.
So instead he doubled down on the downplay path and stated to Woodward (and presumably others) that downplaying was still the correct strategy.

I would wish for a different approach, but I understand how this path became our reality.