[Goose]

I will go with USA hubris couple with stubbornness.



Trump likely did believe the "China virus" thing was deadly...IN CHINA.

He incorrectly assumed that the virus would likely stay in China and/or Asia.

He then made a bet that it would not impact the USA in any meaningful way and therefore made a confident declaration that everything would be fine in the USA.  It was a reasonable bet given recent virus history.

If correct, downplaying would avoid an election year distractions and would keep the stock market soaring to new heights.

So all logical enough IMHO.   Not super presidential, but in the predictable realm for President Trump.



However, he also refuses to admit he made bad calls.  (Remember the hurricane path map with a sharpie mark)

By late April it was pretty clear he bet incorrectly, but no way he'd admit that.

So instead he doubled down on the downplay path and stated to Woodward (and presumably others) that downplaying was still the correct strategy.



I would wish for a different approach, but I understand how this path became our reality.

I pretty much totally agree with this analysis. Trump was perfectly capable of believing the virus was deadly IN CHINA, but that it wouldn't make it to the USA. As you point out, that wasn't totally absurd. Several recent "serious" virus outbreaks didn't. However, the "presidential" thing to do would have been to pass the word to States what the threat MAY be and make a plan to respond if the virus did become significant in the US. He could have done that without risking his bull market. Unfortunately, it apparently didn't occur to him to do so.

[Goose]

I will go with USA hubris couple with stubbornness.



Trump likely did believe the "China virus" thing was deadly...IN CHINA.

He incorrectly assumed that the virus would likely stay in China and/or Asia.

He then made a bet that it would not impact the USA in any meaningful way and therefore made a confident declaration that everything would be fine in the USA.  It was a reasonable bet given recent virus history.

If correct, downplaying would avoid an election year distractions and would keep the stock market soaring to new heights.

So all logical enough IMHO.   Not super presidential, but in the predictable realm for President Trump.



However, he also refuses to admit he made bad calls.  (Remember the hurricane path map with a sharpie mark)

By late April it was pretty clear he bet incorrectly, but no way he'd admit that.

So instead he doubled down on the downplay path and stated to Woodward (and presumably others) that downplaying was still the correct strategy.



I would wish for a different approach, but I understand how this path became our reality.

I pretty much totally agree with this analysis. Trump was perfectly capable of believing the virus was deadly IN CHINA, but that it wouldn't make it to the USA. As you point out, that wasn't totally absurd. Several recent "serious" virus outbreaks didn't. However, the "presidential" thing to do would have been to pass the word to States what the threat MAY be and make a plan to respond if the virus did become significant in the US. He could have done that without risking his bull market. Unfortunately, it apparently didn't occur to him to do so.