[CardinalSagehen]

FWIW - Most on this board live in the SF Bay Area bubble.   Worse, most on this board are living successful lives in the SF Bay Area Bubble. 

I am not so sure the election is as much of a sure thing as those living in the SF Bay Area bubble might believe...

I agree completely that the race is closer than many people realize from the comfort of our cozy, coastal bubble.  Here's the current forecast by FiveThirtyEight (created by Nate Silver, who's a good follow on Twitter for those that are interested): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...-forecast/

Bear in mind that FiveThirtyEight's model gave Trump a 1/3 chance on Election Day vs. Hillary, and it wasn't based on any kind "hidden Trump votes" that didn't appear in polls. From what I understand, it's almost entirely based on an aggregate of state polls, with correct mathematical assumptions for margins of error, overlaid against the Electoral College. Silver is fond of pointing out that many people saw 2/3 vs. 1/3 and assumed that meant Hillary was a lock, or that the model was wrong, when in fact it literally meant that Trump had a decent 1-in-3 chance.  

The polls themselves generally don't lie - people just read them incorrectly and often forget to apply the Electoral College. It's astonishing how many journalists continue to bother reporting national polling averages. Meaningless.  It's like reporting only "yards gained", or some other stat, instead of the score itself.   

In case you're wondering, FiveThirtyEight's model is currently giving Biden a 75% chance, Trump a 24% chance and a 269-269 tie a 1% chance (broken by a vote in the newly seated House by state, which would likely go to Biden Trump based on more states having a Republican majority - thanks to dabigv for the clarification.)

There are some nice visualizations on that site - especially the snake chart, which is something I haven't seen before.

[CardinalSagehen]

FWIW - Most on this board live in the SF Bay Area bubble.   Worse, most on this board are living successful lives in the SF Bay Area Bubble. 

I am not so sure the election is as much of a sure thing as those living in the SF Bay Area bubble might believe...

I agree completely that the race is closer than many people realize from the comfort of our cozy, coastal bubble.  Here's the current forecast by FiveThirtyEight (created by Nate Silver, who's a good follow on Twitter for those that are interested): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...-forecast/

Bear in mind that FiveThirtyEight's model gave Trump a 1/3 chance on Election Day vs. Hillary, and it wasn't based on any kind "hidden Trump votes" that didn't appear in polls. From what I understand, it's almost entirely based on an aggregate of state polls, with correct mathematical assumptions for margins of error, overlaid against the Electoral College. Silver is fond of pointing out that many people saw 2/3 vs. 1/3 and assumed that meant Hillary was a lock, or that the model was wrong, when in fact it literally meant that Trump had a decent 1-in-3 chance.  

The polls themselves generally don't lie - people just read them incorrectly and often forget to apply the Electoral College. It's astonishing how many journalists continue to bother reporting national polling averages. Meaningless.  It's like reporting only "yards gained", or some other stat, instead of the score itself.   

In case you're wondering, FiveThirtyEight's model is currently giving Biden a 75% chance, Trump a 24% chance and a 269-269 tie a 1% chance (broken by a vote in the newly seated House by state, which would likely go to Biden Trump based on more states having a Republican majority - thanks to dabigv for the clarification.)

There are some nice visualizations on that site - especially the snake chart, which is something I haven't seen before.