[M T]

Kinda makes you wonder about the derivative of R, and then, the second derivative.  It isn't just whether R is above or below 1, but how fast it swings high.   If it slowly climbed from below 1 to above 1, society would have time to react.  But, if it jumps (hypothetically speaking, as I didn't look for computed R numbers) from 0.9 to 1.5 in a week, you can get these jumps from 58K to 80K.

To me, R is a number derived from what happens, not as some intrinsic number that drives the infections.  So, the derivative of R is also just a number computed from what happens, rather than being a driver.

[M T]

Kinda makes you wonder about the derivative of R, and then, the second derivative.  It isn't just whether R is above or below 1, but how fast it swings high.   If it slowly climbed from below 1 to above 1, society would have time to react.  But, if it jumps (hypothetically speaking, as I didn't look for computed R numbers) from 0.9 to 1.5 in a week, you can get these jumps from 58K to 80K.

To me, R is a number derived from what happens, not as some intrinsic number that drives the infections.  So, the derivative of R is also just a number computed from what happens, rather than being a driver.