[OutsiderFan]

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/29/928797051...-way-to-go

Third quarter GDP grew at a 33.1% annualized rate in the third quarter (7.4% quarter on quarter).  That's a nice rebound, but

Analysts note the economy is still about 3.5% smaller than it was at the end of last year, before the once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.

For comparison, real GDP contracted by 4.2% between Q4 2007 and Q2 2009 (in the Great Recession), so this is not quite as bad.  And, unfortunately, as viruses get worse, there is a very real risk of a double dip.

I think if you had told me back in April that the total economic effect of the pandemic was a 3.5% hit on the economy through three quarters, I would have probably sighed in relief.  Things could have been much worse.  Of course, that's not much comfort for the millions who are unemployed or the hundreds of thousands who died due to the pandemic, but if we can somehow get through the winter, we may be in a decent position going forward.

BC

The economy was roaring pre-pandemic.  Taxes were lower, that helped.  The stimulus helped.  Candidly, we need another stimulus to keep it going.  I anticipate the economy will slow under Biden once taxes are raised again, regulation is reintroduced, Biden will reverse Trump EOs, we'll become beholden to foreign treaties again.  Sign of the times.  At least Powell has promised to keep rates low through 2022.

Another 751,000 jobs lost last week.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending October 10 was, a decrease 22,654,453 of 415,727 from the previous week. There were 1,411,728 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.

It may be counterintuitive, but the data shows increasing taxes  - in a very prescriptive way - actually leads to economic growth.  It is my firm belief that policies geared to average a new green economy revolution will be the next growth driver like the internet was.

[OutsiderFan]

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/29/928797051...-way-to-go

Third quarter GDP grew at a 33.1% annualized rate in the third quarter (7.4% quarter on quarter).  That's a nice rebound, but

Analysts note the economy is still about 3.5% smaller than it was at the end of last year, before the once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.

For comparison, real GDP contracted by 4.2% between Q4 2007 and Q2 2009 (in the Great Recession), so this is not quite as bad.  And, unfortunately, as viruses get worse, there is a very real risk of a double dip.

I think if you had told me back in April that the total economic effect of the pandemic was a 3.5% hit on the economy through three quarters, I would have probably sighed in relief.  Things could have been much worse.  Of course, that's not much comfort for the millions who are unemployed or the hundreds of thousands who died due to the pandemic, but if we can somehow get through the winter, we may be in a decent position going forward.

BC

The economy was roaring pre-pandemic.  Taxes were lower, that helped.  The stimulus helped.  Candidly, we need another stimulus to keep it going.  I anticipate the economy will slow under Biden once taxes are raised again, regulation is reintroduced, Biden will reverse Trump EOs, we'll become beholden to foreign treaties again.  Sign of the times.  At least Powell has promised to keep rates low through 2022.

Another 751,000 jobs lost last week.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending October 10 was, a decrease 22,654,453 of 415,727 from the previous week. There were 1,411,728 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.

It may be counterintuitive, but the data shows increasing taxes  - in a very prescriptive way - actually leads to economic growth.  It is my firm belief that policies geared to average a new green economy revolution will be the next growth driver like the internet was.