[oldalum]

People can gripe about Dr. Cody, but history is going to show very well on her.  SCC has just 1.6% positive tests over last week.

The balance between NPI restrictions and economic and social activity is in part a value judgment on which people can differ, but it is also an epidemiological/public health judgment about the risk of the infection rate getting out of control and then having to increase the level of restrictions to combat it. As Cody has said she has learned, the infection rate can rocket upward quickly, and when it does it takes a long time to bring it back down. I had been on the side of thinking she was being too conservative in opening up SCC, but now that I'm seeing what's going on in Europe and much of the rest of the U.S., I'm rethinking that. Hospital and especially ICU capacity is an absolute limit that we must avoid hitting, but I am realizing that it is not the only factor to consider. It should be kept in mind that the NPI levers are very crude, blunt, slow tools; it takes weeks to start discerning the effects of moving them, and even then the data are difficult to tie to specific restrictions.

[oldalum]

People can gripe about Dr. Cody, but history is going to show very well on her.  SCC has just 1.6% positive tests over last week.

The balance between NPI restrictions and economic and social activity is in part a value judgment on which people can differ, but it is also an epidemiological/public health judgment about the risk of the infection rate getting out of control and then having to increase the level of restrictions to combat it. As Cody has said she has learned, the infection rate can rocket upward quickly, and when it does it takes a long time to bring it back down. I had been on the side of thinking she was being too conservative in opening up SCC, but now that I'm seeing what's going on in Europe and much of the rest of the U.S., I'm rethinking that. Hospital and especially ICU capacity is an absolute limit that we must avoid hitting, but I am realizing that it is not the only factor to consider. It should be kept in mind that the NPI levers are very crude, blunt, slow tools; it takes weeks to start discerning the effects of moving them, and even then the data are difficult to tie to specific restrictions.