[BostonCard]

It should be kept in mind that the NPI levers are very crude, blunt, slow tools; it takes weeks to start discerning the effects of moving them, and even then the data are difficult to tie to specific restrictions.

Indeed this is true. It is also true that the ANNOUNCEMENT of a change in restrictions will often create a change in behavior in the populace that is not directly tied to the restrictions. Scare people a bit and they stay home. Say things are "getting better" and they go to the disco.

Right.  One other thing to consider is that policy doesn't affect the level of infections, it affects the level of growth.  Unfortunately, policies seem anchored on infection levels.  The problem, of course, is that you can have low levels of infection, but if infections are growing exponentially, you will eventually get an outbreak.  And because of the delay between exposure and infections, one can put in draconian restrictions (as the UK just did) and not see an effect for one to two weeks.

BC

[BostonCard]

It should be kept in mind that the NPI levers are very crude, blunt, slow tools; it takes weeks to start discerning the effects of moving them, and even then the data are difficult to tie to specific restrictions.

Indeed this is true. It is also true that the ANNOUNCEMENT of a change in restrictions will often create a change in behavior in the populace that is not directly tied to the restrictions. Scare people a bit and they stay home. Say things are "getting better" and they go to the disco.

Right.  One other thing to consider is that policy doesn't affect the level of infections, it affects the level of growth.  Unfortunately, policies seem anchored on infection levels.  The problem, of course, is that you can have low levels of infection, but if infections are growing exponentially, you will eventually get an outbreak.  And because of the delay between exposure and infections, one can put in draconian restrictions (as the UK just did) and not see an effect for one to two weeks.

BC