10-31-2020, 09:42 PM
Regarding where things break down, this article (behind SJ MercuryNews paywall, but probably also on NY Times or other sites)
"How Are Americans Catching the Virus? Increasingly, ‘They Have No Idea’"
brings home the point that once the virus and outbreaks get beyond a point, there is little point in contact warning (almost always misrepresented as "contact tracing"). Some communities have given up even trying.
To me, one mention early in the article is telling and worrisome:
Personally, I believe that the public policies may reduce R, but they aren't stringent enough to keep you from getting the disease. Your individual risk is dependent on the level of infection in the community, and not just on your specific behavior. If the infection is 10x in the community A vs community B, your risk is 10x.
"How Are Americans Catching the Virus? Increasingly, ‘They Have No Idea’"
brings home the point that once the virus and outbreaks get beyond a point, there is little point in contact warning (almost always misrepresented as "contact tracing"). Some communities have given up even trying.
To me, one mention early in the article is telling and worrisome:
Quote:“I was so careful,” said Denny Taylor, 45, who said he had taken exacting precautions — wearing a mask, getting groceries delivered — before he became the first in his family and among his co-workers to test positive for the virus.
Lying in a hospital bed in Omaha, Nebraska, this past week, he said he still had no idea where he caught it.
Personally, I believe that the public policies may reduce R, but they aren't stringent enough to keep you from getting the disease. Your individual risk is dependent on the level of infection in the community, and not just on your specific behavior. If the infection is 10x in the community A vs community B, your risk is 10x.