[M T]

Members of this board have held Germany as one of the standards in what should have been done when COVID-19 appeared.  Certainly, they had a lower number of cases in the first few months.  This has led people to assert that Germany handled things well compared to other countries.

Per Worldometers, the 7-day moving average for daily new cases in Germany is 14,854 as of Oct. 31.  Germany's population is 83,871,855.  That gives their daily case rate to be 17.71 per 100K population.  California's "widespread" category (purple) kicks in at 10 daily cases per 100K.

For comparison, for the US, the 7-day moving average is 81,631 for a population of 331,663,399, with a daily rate of 24.6 daily cases per 100K.
California: 7-day moving average of 4,018 for a population of 39,937,500, with a daily rate of 10.06 per 100K.
SCC: 7-day moving average of 125 for a population of 1,945,940, with a daily rate of 6.42 per 100K.

Indeed, if you do a comparison of Worldometer's projections for daily deaths per 100K population, Germany passes the US on December 10, about the same time as their projection of current cases per 100K for Germany passes the US (in the mid-80s per 100K - OUCH!)  But those are just projections that I don't know are valid or not.  I expect (and hope) Germany will find a way to tighten things down.

To me, this suggests that there is a lot of chaos in the way things happen.  I think we all believe the US could have done very much better, but to say anyone (including SCC) is doing it right is perhaps more a matter of belief than science.


The projected infection rates are sobering.  Germany tops out at 142 daily cases/100K, 2.2 daily deaths/100K;  US tops out at 93 daily cases/100K, 0.7 daily deaths/100K.  I surely hope they are wrong!

[M T]

Members of this board have held Germany as one of the standards in what should have been done when COVID-19 appeared.  Certainly, they had a lower number of cases in the first few months.  This has led people to assert that Germany handled things well compared to other countries.

Per Worldometers, the 7-day moving average for daily new cases in Germany is 14,854 as of Oct. 31.  Germany's population is 83,871,855.  That gives their daily case rate to be 17.71 per 100K population.  California's "widespread" category (purple) kicks in at 10 daily cases per 100K.

For comparison, for the US, the 7-day moving average is 81,631 for a population of 331,663,399, with a daily rate of 24.6 daily cases per 100K.
California: 7-day moving average of 4,018 for a population of 39,937,500, with a daily rate of 10.06 per 100K.
SCC: 7-day moving average of 125 for a population of 1,945,940, with a daily rate of 6.42 per 100K.

Indeed, if you do a comparison of Worldometer's projections for daily deaths per 100K population, Germany passes the US on December 10, about the same time as their projection of current cases per 100K for Germany passes the US (in the mid-80s per 100K - OUCH!)  But those are just projections that I don't know are valid or not.  I expect (and hope) Germany will find a way to tighten things down.

To me, this suggests that there is a lot of chaos in the way things happen.  I think we all believe the US could have done very much better, but to say anyone (including SCC) is doing it right is perhaps more a matter of belief than science.


The projected infection rates are sobering.  Germany tops out at 142 daily cases/100K, 2.2 daily deaths/100K;  US tops out at 93 daily cases/100K, 0.7 daily deaths/100K.  I surely hope they are wrong!