[JustAnotherFan]

Members of this board have held Germany as one of the standards in what should have been done when COVID-19 appeared.  Certainly, they had a lower number of cases in the first few months.  This has led people to assert that Germany handled things well compared to other countries.

Per Worldometers, the 7-day moving average for daily new cases in Germany is 14,854 as of Oct. 31.  Germany's population is 83,871,855.  That gives their daily case rate to be 17.71 per 100K population.  California's "widespread" category (purple) kicks in at 10 daily cases per 100K.

For comparison, for the US, the 7-day moving average is 81,631 for a population of 331,663,399, with a daily rate of 24.6 daily cases per 100K.
California: 7-day moving average of 4,018 for a population of 39,937,500, with a daily rate of 10.06 per 100K.
SCC: 7-day moving average of 125 for a population of 1,945,940, with a daily rate of 6.42 per 100K.

Indeed, if you do a comparison of Worldometer's projections for daily deaths per 100K population, Germany passes the US on December 10, about the same time as their projection of current cases per 100K for Germany passes the US (in the mid-80s per 100K - OUCH!)  But those are just projections that I don't know are valid or not.  I expect (and hope) Germany will find a way to tighten things down.

To me, this suggests that there is a lot of chaos in the way things happen.  I think we all believe the US could have done very much better, but to say anyone (including SCC) is doing it right is perhaps more a matter of belief than science.


The projected infection rates are sobering.  Germany tops out at 142 daily cases/100K, 2.2 daily deaths/100K;  US tops out at 93 daily cases/100K, 0.7 daily deaths/100K.  I surely hope they are wrong!

Germany handled the time between the first and second waves better.   In Germany you can actually see two unique waves.

A few things do matter going forward.  Germany has a greater population density and a more hospitable climate for COVID-19.   Germany should be a touch better off than a few other EU countries with bigger and more crowded cities, less robust health care infrastructure, and more people reliant upon public transportation.

Germany has 126 COVID19 deaths per million right now.   The USA has COVID 712 deaths per million. (Worldometers on Nov 1 at 7:30AM PST)

Projections going forward may be off for one or both countries but since 126<712, Germany has done a better job.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but....I will bet on Germany to do better than those numbers in the projections.   France, Austria, Poland, and the Netherlands all have lower ramps.  It is a bit hard for me to believe that Germany will underperform all of its neighbors, at least on the Worldometers projections.

I would go as far as to say if Germany gets up to those projected death and case rate levels, then they will not be alone.   In that world, other countries that have been slower to use math and science (Italy, Spain, UK, USA) will eventually exceed Germany's levels.    That'd be bad.  :(
   
FWIW - Germany is not exactly the gold standard here, rather Germany illustrates that even a wealthy western economy could control COVID-19 even after getting hit hard in March/April.   The real gold standard G20 level nations have been, and remain, S. Korea, Japan & Australia.   And all three of them have projections for deaths and cases that the USA is unlikely to see in any month pre-vaccine.

I agree with everything you posted but it is worth noting that Australia is an island, Japan is an archipelago, and S. Korea is virtually an island since it's only border is with N. Korea. Same can be said for other success stories in Singapore, Taiwan, and New Zealand. The EU countries can face more challenges in having to deal with shared borders with neighbors who do not take Covid-19 measures as seriously. That's why I feel so much for Mexico and Canada (and some states/counties internally).

[JustAnotherFan]

Members of this board have held Germany as one of the standards in what should have been done when COVID-19 appeared.  Certainly, they had a lower number of cases in the first few months.  This has led people to assert that Germany handled things well compared to other countries.

Per Worldometers, the 7-day moving average for daily new cases in Germany is 14,854 as of Oct. 31.  Germany's population is 83,871,855.  That gives their daily case rate to be 17.71 per 100K population.  California's "widespread" category (purple) kicks in at 10 daily cases per 100K.

For comparison, for the US, the 7-day moving average is 81,631 for a population of 331,663,399, with a daily rate of 24.6 daily cases per 100K.
California: 7-day moving average of 4,018 for a population of 39,937,500, with a daily rate of 10.06 per 100K.
SCC: 7-day moving average of 125 for a population of 1,945,940, with a daily rate of 6.42 per 100K.

Indeed, if you do a comparison of Worldometer's projections for daily deaths per 100K population, Germany passes the US on December 10, about the same time as their projection of current cases per 100K for Germany passes the US (in the mid-80s per 100K - OUCH!)  But those are just projections that I don't know are valid or not.  I expect (and hope) Germany will find a way to tighten things down.

To me, this suggests that there is a lot of chaos in the way things happen.  I think we all believe the US could have done very much better, but to say anyone (including SCC) is doing it right is perhaps more a matter of belief than science.


The projected infection rates are sobering.  Germany tops out at 142 daily cases/100K, 2.2 daily deaths/100K;  US tops out at 93 daily cases/100K, 0.7 daily deaths/100K.  I surely hope they are wrong!

Germany handled the time between the first and second waves better.   In Germany you can actually see two unique waves.

A few things do matter going forward.  Germany has a greater population density and a more hospitable climate for COVID-19.   Germany should be a touch better off than a few other EU countries with bigger and more crowded cities, less robust health care infrastructure, and more people reliant upon public transportation.

Germany has 126 COVID19 deaths per million right now.   The USA has COVID 712 deaths per million. (Worldometers on Nov 1 at 7:30AM PST)

Projections going forward may be off for one or both countries but since 126<712, Germany has done a better job.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but....I will bet on Germany to do better than those numbers in the projections.   France, Austria, Poland, and the Netherlands all have lower ramps.  It is a bit hard for me to believe that Germany will underperform all of its neighbors, at least on the Worldometers projections.

I would go as far as to say if Germany gets up to those projected death and case rate levels, then they will not be alone.   In that world, other countries that have been slower to use math and science (Italy, Spain, UK, USA) will eventually exceed Germany's levels.    That'd be bad.  :(
   
FWIW - Germany is not exactly the gold standard here, rather Germany illustrates that even a wealthy western economy could control COVID-19 even after getting hit hard in March/April.   The real gold standard G20 level nations have been, and remain, S. Korea, Japan & Australia.   And all three of them have projections for deaths and cases that the USA is unlikely to see in any month pre-vaccine.

I agree with everything you posted but it is worth noting that Australia is an island, Japan is an archipelago, and S. Korea is virtually an island since it's only border is with N. Korea. Same can be said for other success stories in Singapore, Taiwan, and New Zealand. The EU countries can face more challenges in having to deal with shared borders with neighbors who do not take Covid-19 measures as seriously. That's why I feel so much for Mexico and Canada (and some states/counties internally).