As many of you know, I have lamented repeatedly the fact the USA did not initially possess and did not subsequently rapidly develop an "adequate" tracking and tracing system to control the virus. The EU nations, particularly Germany, seemed to have possessed and/or developed/augmented their capabilities to do so. Certainly Italy appeared to be controlling the outbreak.
Unfortunately, based on current numbers, it appears that the EU nations actually have failed in their attempt to control the virus using the only "strategy" (tracking and tracing) that existed to do so. We in the USA didn't have the necessary programs in place when the outbreak occurred. We made some attempt to create such programs, but basically gave up when it became clear serious enforcement would be required to make it work. After that, we had no strategy available other than "ride it out and hope for a vaccine". It would appear that despite their initially better preparedness and greater public cooperation (and willingness to enforce if necessary), the EU is basically in the same situation. "The Dance" has failed.
There are nations where it has not failed, but 1) It may yet fail, and 2) most of these nations have unique characteristics that greatly aid the use of tracking and tracing. However, given the current situation in the US and the EU, I think it is clear that we really need a "plan C". Plan A was shutdown, get cases under control, track and trace. It didn't work for the USA, and now it isn't working for the EU. Plan B is ride it out, take some lumps, and wait for a vaccine to save us. Problem is, those lumps (deaths and economics both) are going to be bad no matter how we balance the competing factors. It is going to possibly be a long time before even a "good" vaccine will save us, and it postulates that COVID-19 immunity is "fairly robust". We think it is, but we don't actually know. Thus, for these reasons, we really need a "plan C". Suggestions welcome.
Unfortunately, based on current numbers, it appears that the EU nations actually have failed in their attempt to control the virus using the only "strategy" (tracking and tracing) that existed to do so. We in the USA didn't have the necessary programs in place when the outbreak occurred. We made some attempt to create such programs, but basically gave up when it became clear serious enforcement would be required to make it work. After that, we had no strategy available other than "ride it out and hope for a vaccine". It would appear that despite their initially better preparedness and greater public cooperation (and willingness to enforce if necessary), the EU is basically in the same situation. "The Dance" has failed.
There are nations where it has not failed, but 1) It may yet fail, and 2) most of these nations have unique characteristics that greatly aid the use of tracking and tracing. However, given the current situation in the US and the EU, I think it is clear that we really need a "plan C". Plan A was shutdown, get cases under control, track and trace. It didn't work for the USA, and now it isn't working for the EU. Plan B is ride it out, take some lumps, and wait for a vaccine to save us. Problem is, those lumps (deaths and economics both) are going to be bad no matter how we balance the competing factors. It is going to possibly be a long time before even a "good" vaccine will save us, and it postulates that COVID-19 immunity is "fairly robust". We think it is, but we don't actually know. Thus, for these reasons, we really need a "plan C". Suggestions welcome.