11-01-2020, 04:25 PM
Based on Trump voters I know, they are anything but shy. Even in 2016, the polls were within 1% of the final margin, but they didn’t weight by education, when there whites without college degrees were under sampled and disproportionately voted for Trump, which made a difference in a handful of key states.
A Trump win is unlikely but hardly impossible. If it happens, it will be due to something that was unanticipated. If you are looking for reasons to be sanguine about a Trump victory, there is the Des Moins register poll of Iowa run by Anne Seltzer, who is considered the best in the business. She found a 6 point Trump advantage in Iowa, which was exactly the same advantage she found in 2016, when he won by 10 points. As I said, unlikely but far from impossible.
BC
A Trump win is unlikely but hardly impossible. If it happens, it will be due to something that was unanticipated. If you are looking for reasons to be sanguine about a Trump victory, there is the Des Moins register poll of Iowa run by Anne Seltzer, who is considered the best in the business. She found a 6 point Trump advantage in Iowa, which was exactly the same advantage she found in 2016, when he won by 10 points. As I said, unlikely but far from impossible.
BC