[Farm93]

That said, there was a "true" shutdown in the EU. And it is now not working for them. For that reason, I can't really accept the idea that a "true shutdown" in the USA would put us in a situation where "Plan A" worked. We might be slightly better off in terms of deaths, but we would be where the EU is now, with community spread and no viable options to continue with plan A.

It would be more accurate to say that the EU's post-shutdown strategy is not working for them. The EU has not been in a shutdown for many months. They are now starting to shut things down again.

Exactly. And that is the problem. The post-shutdown strategy was tracking and tracing a relatively low level number of cases and keeping the number of cases low. That hasn't worked. We in the USA never got our case numbers low enough and never had/developed good enough contact tracing to make it work here. In the EU, they did both, but yet it still didn't work.

It may be in the presence of any significant relaxation of a lockdown, contact tracking and tracing just won't work in some societies. This appears to be the case based on what we see in the EU. Exactly why that happened isn't (yet) clear, but it did.

That's not quite true.   The EU efforts worked for ~5 months.   And they used that time to get ready for the second wave.   Their leaders were very clear that the second wave might be difficult, and now as they move to a new set of lockdowns the citizens do not seem shocked.

The EU nations got the cases down in an attempt to prioritize school openings, and ultimately the virus is just too efficient.   However, if you look at the EU leader messaging over the last 5 months, they were not generally saying the battle is over or things of that type.   

The USA prioritized bars, restaurants, nail salons, sports, AND schools, so it seems logical that the virus will prevail here too in time.  IMHO we are a few weeks behind the European curve because the fall weather is a bit better in the USA.   Our current status certainly isn't because the USA citizens are doing enough to keep COVID in check for the winter. 

The USA citizens and USA government officials here don't really seem ready for this next wave.  

The idea that America and Americans are somehow too weak to do what is required feels wrong and counter to our country's history.   I understand the many reasons why POTUS45 doesn't want to deliver tough love and epic struggle messages BEFORE an election, but I am hopeful those that understand the scope of the pending challenge will step up and say something after the election. 

Hopeful some in government will tap into that spirit of American exceptionalism.  That's my hope anyway since COVID19 will crush our health care system and our health care workers if we continue nationally to embrace the fatalistic vibe.

[Farm93]

That said, there was a "true" shutdown in the EU. And it is now not working for them. For that reason, I can't really accept the idea that a "true shutdown" in the USA would put us in a situation where "Plan A" worked. We might be slightly better off in terms of deaths, but we would be where the EU is now, with community spread and no viable options to continue with plan A.

It would be more accurate to say that the EU's post-shutdown strategy is not working for them. The EU has not been in a shutdown for many months. They are now starting to shut things down again.

Exactly. And that is the problem. The post-shutdown strategy was tracking and tracing a relatively low level number of cases and keeping the number of cases low. That hasn't worked. We in the USA never got our case numbers low enough and never had/developed good enough contact tracing to make it work here. In the EU, they did both, but yet it still didn't work.

It may be in the presence of any significant relaxation of a lockdown, contact tracking and tracing just won't work in some societies. This appears to be the case based on what we see in the EU. Exactly why that happened isn't (yet) clear, but it did.

That's not quite true.   The EU efforts worked for ~5 months.   And they used that time to get ready for the second wave.   Their leaders were very clear that the second wave might be difficult, and now as they move to a new set of lockdowns the citizens do not seem shocked.

The EU nations got the cases down in an attempt to prioritize school openings, and ultimately the virus is just too efficient.   However, if you look at the EU leader messaging over the last 5 months, they were not generally saying the battle is over or things of that type.   

The USA prioritized bars, restaurants, nail salons, sports, AND schools, so it seems logical that the virus will prevail here too in time.  IMHO we are a few weeks behind the European curve because the fall weather is a bit better in the USA.   Our current status certainly isn't because the USA citizens are doing enough to keep COVID in check for the winter. 

The USA citizens and USA government officials here don't really seem ready for this next wave.  

The idea that America and Americans are somehow too weak to do what is required feels wrong and counter to our country's history.   I understand the many reasons why POTUS45 doesn't want to deliver tough love and epic struggle messages BEFORE an election, but I am hopeful those that understand the scope of the pending challenge will step up and say something after the election. 

Hopeful some in government will tap into that spirit of American exceptionalism.  That's my hope anyway since COVID19 will crush our health care system and our health care workers if we continue nationally to embrace the fatalistic vibe.