11-02-2020, 06:14 PM
The little bit of brightness at the edge of the dark clouds is that the medical fields have seemingly improved outcomes. We all hope for a vaccine to save us. While I hold that hope, I know it is less than certain. It is worrisome to think that if people are reacting this way to this long-predicted round, what's going to happen if the vaccines don't work well?
There seems to be an assumption here that cold weather will bring increased cases, and that this is one of the reasons for a larger wave in the fall to winter. I believe that is the case with the flu. What do we know with COVID-19?
In the early days of COVID, there were discussions about whether summer was going to cause infections to go way down. People looked at cases in warmer climes. My impression was that there wasn't much evidence of benefit of one climate over another.
The bigger 2nd wave in Santa Clara County and the US that hit hard in July wasn't due to low temperatures (but one could imagine A/C had something to do with it).
We can all relate to motherly advice of a century ago of "Come inside, young man, before you catch your death of cold!". I know my (trained) reaction to being cold is to think I'm more likely to get a respiratory infection.
Considering that people adjust their outdoor time based on the temperature, most of us don't spend too much time out in the extreme heat or extreme cold (yes, there are exceptions). We spend most of our time indoors, summer or winter, and mostly in a range of 60-80F. Do we expect that to make a large difference? We're warm-blooded creatures, so it isn't that the environment in our body changes a lot in the way of temperature. So, what is it?
Does the winter environment (whether indoor or out) benefit the virus's longevity, and does that matter much when transmission is apparently primarily indoors? (less UV, colder outside, cooler inside)
Does the winter environment cause each individual to be more susceptible to infection (rhinitis, potentially less Vitamin D, less fruit in our diet, ...)?
Does the winter season have more opportunities for the virus to jump from person to person (school, for instance) or from group to group (holidays vs summer vacations)?
I'm not sure that SARS-COV-2 will behave the way Influenza does. It may.
I wish we knew the answers to these questions, as that might change our behaviors to something that reduced our chances of getting infected. For instance, if it was the difference in our indoor temperatures, we might set our thermostats at 78 rather than 68. If it is dryness, we might work hard to humidify our homes, work, and schools. If it were vitamin D, the CDC might actually recommend it as they finally did masks. etc.
There seems to be an assumption here that cold weather will bring increased cases, and that this is one of the reasons for a larger wave in the fall to winter. I believe that is the case with the flu. What do we know with COVID-19?
In the early days of COVID, there were discussions about whether summer was going to cause infections to go way down. People looked at cases in warmer climes. My impression was that there wasn't much evidence of benefit of one climate over another.
The bigger 2nd wave in Santa Clara County and the US that hit hard in July wasn't due to low temperatures (but one could imagine A/C had something to do with it).
We can all relate to motherly advice of a century ago of "Come inside, young man, before you catch your death of cold!". I know my (trained) reaction to being cold is to think I'm more likely to get a respiratory infection.
Considering that people adjust their outdoor time based on the temperature, most of us don't spend too much time out in the extreme heat or extreme cold (yes, there are exceptions). We spend most of our time indoors, summer or winter, and mostly in a range of 60-80F. Do we expect that to make a large difference? We're warm-blooded creatures, so it isn't that the environment in our body changes a lot in the way of temperature. So, what is it?
Does the winter environment (whether indoor or out) benefit the virus's longevity, and does that matter much when transmission is apparently primarily indoors? (less UV, colder outside, cooler inside)
Does the winter environment cause each individual to be more susceptible to infection (rhinitis, potentially less Vitamin D, less fruit in our diet, ...)?
Does the winter season have more opportunities for the virus to jump from person to person (school, for instance) or from group to group (holidays vs summer vacations)?
I'm not sure that SARS-COV-2 will behave the way Influenza does. It may.
I wish we knew the answers to these questions, as that might change our behaviors to something that reduced our chances of getting infected. For instance, if it was the difference in our indoor temperatures, we might set our thermostats at 78 rather than 68. If it is dryness, we might work hard to humidify our homes, work, and schools. If it were vitamin D, the CDC might actually recommend it as they finally did masks. etc.