[BostonCard]

The seasonal pattern in South Africa, Chile, and Australia certainly does suggest that cold weather brings increased cases, with cases peaking in July/August, as you would expect in the Southern Hemisphere's winter.  But there are exceptions, and Argentina does not really fit the pattern (its peak in cases didn't occur until October).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...th-africa/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/chile/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...australia/

I will be interested to see if some of the northern hemisphere countries that did well in the "first wave" (China, South Korea, Japan) are still able to keep a lid on the pandemic as things get colder.

My theory (and it is just a theory), is that situations which cause people to congregate indoors, whether it is in the winter to stay warm, or the summer to stay cool in air conditioned buildings (one reason why Europe may not have seen as much of a summer surge is that fewer European buildings are air conditioned) helps spread the virus.  That kind of explains why the summer wave was so much worse in Arizona, Texas, Florida, and California (especially southern California), and also seems to explain why the fall/winter wave is worst in the midwest.  It doesn't explain everything though; Vermont and Maine, don't seem to have had much of a winter wave yet, though cases have started to rise.

BC

[BostonCard]

The seasonal pattern in South Africa, Chile, and Australia certainly does suggest that cold weather brings increased cases, with cases peaking in July/August, as you would expect in the Southern Hemisphere's winter.  But there are exceptions, and Argentina does not really fit the pattern (its peak in cases didn't occur until October).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...th-africa/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/chile/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...australia/

I will be interested to see if some of the northern hemisphere countries that did well in the "first wave" (China, South Korea, Japan) are still able to keep a lid on the pandemic as things get colder.

My theory (and it is just a theory), is that situations which cause people to congregate indoors, whether it is in the winter to stay warm, or the summer to stay cool in air conditioned buildings (one reason why Europe may not have seen as much of a summer surge is that fewer European buildings are air conditioned) helps spread the virus.  That kind of explains why the summer wave was so much worse in Arizona, Texas, Florida, and California (especially southern California), and also seems to explain why the fall/winter wave is worst in the midwest.  It doesn't explain everything though; Vermont and Maine, don't seem to have had much of a winter wave yet, though cases have started to rise.

BC