[Farm93]

Trump was trailing in the polls by large single digit margins to Biden BEFORE the Democratic primaries began back in late 2019.   That was part of the reason a lot of Democrats voted for the Biden in the first place.   They believed he was best positioned to bring back the Blue Wall, even if he didn't excite key parts of the base (East Coast college educated types, African Americans, West Coast Dems, etc.)   The polls proved a bit inaccurate, but they were in the same range for Joe vs Trump back in November 2019-January 2020.    Which Biden referenced consistently in December and January.

The actual election is close enough that one could imagine that Trump would have won if COVID was not a thing, but even before COVID he was trailing in the polls by 4-5 points.   At election he was trailing in polls by 7-9 points.     He will lose the popular vote in 2020 by 3 points.   So some quick math and assumptions imply a very close popular vote and likely an electoral college win.    To project a 5mm to 10mm Trump win would have meant landslide like territory, and that wasn't going to happen with CA, MA, and NY giving any Democrat 5+ million.  They were set to do that as we entered 2020 before COVID was a thing.

It would be a mistake for Republicans to think Trump was set if only COVID didn't happen.   Just as it would have been a mistake for Democrats to assume that Trump's mismanagement of COVID would seal the deal for Biden.

[Farm93]

Trump was trailing in the polls by large single digit margins to Biden BEFORE the Democratic primaries began back in late 2019.   That was part of the reason a lot of Democrats voted for the Biden in the first place.   They believed he was best positioned to bring back the Blue Wall, even if he didn't excite key parts of the base (East Coast college educated types, African Americans, West Coast Dems, etc.)   The polls proved a bit inaccurate, but they were in the same range for Joe vs Trump back in November 2019-January 2020.    Which Biden referenced consistently in December and January.

The actual election is close enough that one could imagine that Trump would have won if COVID was not a thing, but even before COVID he was trailing in the polls by 4-5 points.   At election he was trailing in polls by 7-9 points.     He will lose the popular vote in 2020 by 3 points.   So some quick math and assumptions imply a very close popular vote and likely an electoral college win.    To project a 5mm to 10mm Trump win would have meant landslide like territory, and that wasn't going to happen with CA, MA, and NY giving any Democrat 5+ million.  They were set to do that as we entered 2020 before COVID was a thing.

It would be a mistake for Republicans to think Trump was set if only COVID didn't happen.   Just as it would have been a mistake for Democrats to assume that Trump's mismanagement of COVID would seal the deal for Biden.