[teejers1]

My guess is that Trump has a high-floor but low-ceilin.  If you look at his approval ratings, they are basically identical now (-8.4 net approve - disapprove) as they were in January (-10.3).  In fact, Trump's approval ratings are basically flat going all the way back to April 2018, save for a small, temporary bump in disapproval in Jan 2019 (the government shutdown), a small temporary jump in approval in April (rally around the flag) and drop in approval over the summer (COVID second wave), of which he has recovered.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tru...l-ratings/

BC

1.  Mick, I admire your tenacity in even bothering to respond to Snorlax, who perfectly encapsulates the back hand of the Elitists who "just know better."

2.  The bottom line is we'll never know the outcome of a Trump-Biden battle in a non-Covid world.  But I respectfully suggest that those underestimating how economy drives things are mistaken.  The Ronald Reagan question to voters back in 1980 - "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" - just pulverized Carter and decided that election.  Without Covid - and assuming no other unexpected economic foundation-rattler - there is every reason to believe that most voters would have answered Reagan's question in the affirmative (unlike they did 40 years ago), and voted accordingly.  One lasting anecdote informs my opinion on this (apologies if this is a repeat).  A young AA Lyft driver was taking me to the airport in New Orleans about a year ago.  It was 5:30 a.m., and he shared what he was doing - working 2 regular jobs (flipping houses and driving) and looking to invest in a local bar with some co-investors.  I was very impressed with his hustle.  And then he offered, out of the blue, that "I know I'm supposed to not like Trump, and I don't want to have a beer with the guy.  But he is good for my businesses.  Things are hopping."    The point is, when things are going well for folks economically, they tend to overlook other flaws, even big ones, in a candidate.

I don't know about a landslide - probably not.  But I'm with Mick in thinking Trump wins without Covid, perhaps comfortably.  

P.S.  Not sure why folks give random polls so much credit, particularly in the Trump political world.  Think it's pretty clear that many folks "get" that supporting Trump publicly in any fashion, including polls, can result in derision.  So, they just prevaricate . . . and then they vote in private.  This is perfectly understandable.  What I have a much harder time "getting" is the 30K (or whatever the number is) of people who show up for a Trump rally.  There is some degree of Trump adulation out there that is baffling for someone with hardly any (and that may be generous) personally redeeming qualities.

[teejers1]

My guess is that Trump has a high-floor but low-ceilin.  If you look at his approval ratings, they are basically identical now (-8.4 net approve - disapprove) as they were in January (-10.3).  In fact, Trump's approval ratings are basically flat going all the way back to April 2018, save for a small, temporary bump in disapproval in Jan 2019 (the government shutdown), a small temporary jump in approval in April (rally around the flag) and drop in approval over the summer (COVID second wave), of which he has recovered.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tru...l-ratings/

BC

1.  Mick, I admire your tenacity in even bothering to respond to Snorlax, who perfectly encapsulates the back hand of the Elitists who "just know better."

2.  The bottom line is we'll never know the outcome of a Trump-Biden battle in a non-Covid world.  But I respectfully suggest that those underestimating how economy drives things are mistaken.  The Ronald Reagan question to voters back in 1980 - "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" - just pulverized Carter and decided that election.  Without Covid - and assuming no other unexpected economic foundation-rattler - there is every reason to believe that most voters would have answered Reagan's question in the affirmative (unlike they did 40 years ago), and voted accordingly.  One lasting anecdote informs my opinion on this (apologies if this is a repeat).  A young AA Lyft driver was taking me to the airport in New Orleans about a year ago.  It was 5:30 a.m., and he shared what he was doing - working 2 regular jobs (flipping houses and driving) and looking to invest in a local bar with some co-investors.  I was very impressed with his hustle.  And then he offered, out of the blue, that "I know I'm supposed to not like Trump, and I don't want to have a beer with the guy.  But he is good for my businesses.  Things are hopping."    The point is, when things are going well for folks economically, they tend to overlook other flaws, even big ones, in a candidate.

I don't know about a landslide - probably not.  But I'm with Mick in thinking Trump wins without Covid, perhaps comfortably.  

P.S.  Not sure why folks give random polls so much credit, particularly in the Trump political world.  Think it's pretty clear that many folks "get" that supporting Trump publicly in any fashion, including polls, can result in derision.  So, they just prevaricate . . . and then they vote in private.  This is perfectly understandable.  What I have a much harder time "getting" is the 30K (or whatever the number is) of people who show up for a Trump rally.  There is some degree of Trump adulation out there that is baffling for someone with hardly any (and that may be generous) personally redeeming qualities.