[M T]

In California, 8 counties moved into more restrictive categories (ie, more widespread infection) this week (2 into purple), with 20 counties in danger of moving to a more restrictive category next week (including SCC).  No county moved into a less restrictive category and no county had better numbers than their current category.  This is despite California increasing last week the maximum downward linear adjustment of cases/100K for the county's testing rate relative to the state average.  

I hope the increased restrictions will slow the growth of cases, but my opinion is they won't slow it much.

Another bad sign, the 7-day moving average of the number of daily new patient cases in California Skilled Nursing Facilities has jumped by more than a factor of 2 in the last 7 days (1-Nov to 8-Nov, from 41 (the lowest since Apr. 2) to 97 per day), while the overall daily number of cases for the general population jumped 25%.   Currently, about 8.7% of cases in SNFs in CA result in deaths.  (The number of cases in SNF health care workers jumped similarly.  The ratio of patient cases per HCW cases remains about 1.3.)

When I look at the shape of the curve of SCC cases for the 2nd wave and compare it to recent numbers, Nov. 2 (latest 7-day avg when I looked) looks like June 15, the end of a slow rise, except 3x as high.  After that, we had 5 weeks of steep growth before we got enough control.   The 2nd wave never got down to even the peak of the first wave.  If cold weather is a factor, I'd think the growth wouldn't stop in 5 weeks without more drastic measures.

[M T]

In California, 8 counties moved into more restrictive categories (ie, more widespread infection) this week (2 into purple), with 20 counties in danger of moving to a more restrictive category next week (including SCC).  No county moved into a less restrictive category and no county had better numbers than their current category.  This is despite California increasing last week the maximum downward linear adjustment of cases/100K for the county's testing rate relative to the state average.  

I hope the increased restrictions will slow the growth of cases, but my opinion is they won't slow it much.

Another bad sign, the 7-day moving average of the number of daily new patient cases in California Skilled Nursing Facilities has jumped by more than a factor of 2 in the last 7 days (1-Nov to 8-Nov, from 41 (the lowest since Apr. 2) to 97 per day), while the overall daily number of cases for the general population jumped 25%.   Currently, about 8.7% of cases in SNFs in CA result in deaths.  (The number of cases in SNF health care workers jumped similarly.  The ratio of patient cases per HCW cases remains about 1.3.)

When I look at the shape of the curve of SCC cases for the 2nd wave and compare it to recent numbers, Nov. 2 (latest 7-day avg when I looked) looks like June 15, the end of a slow rise, except 3x as high.  After that, we had 5 weeks of steep growth before we got enough control.   The 2nd wave never got down to even the peak of the first wave.  If cold weather is a factor, I'd think the growth wouldn't stop in 5 weeks without more drastic measures.