[BostonCard]

It seems like weather is the other variable.

States significantly below the trendline (that is, they have fewer cases than would be expected based on restrictions):
Florida
Mississipi
Alabama
Nevada
Georgia
Virginia
South Carolina

States above the trendline (more cases than would be expected based on degree of restriction):
North Dakota
Wyoming
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Rhode Island

New Mexico is the one state with a higher than expected number of cases for its containment measures that is a warm weather state, while Maine is an exception to the rule in the other direction (cold weather state with fewer cases than would be expected for its containment)

BC

[BostonCard]

It seems like weather is the other variable.

States significantly below the trendline (that is, they have fewer cases than would be expected based on restrictions):
Florida
Mississipi
Alabama
Nevada
Georgia
Virginia
South Carolina

States above the trendline (more cases than would be expected based on degree of restriction):
North Dakota
Wyoming
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Rhode Island

New Mexico is the one state with a higher than expected number of cases for its containment measures that is a warm weather state, while Maine is an exception to the rule in the other direction (cold weather state with fewer cases than would be expected for its containment)

BC