12-24-2020, 09:57 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-24-2020, 10:01 AM by OutsiderFan.)
The Niners have one job and that is to fix the QB position.
It would be worth trading their entire allotment of picks in this year's draft to get who they want. Everyone knows the on-field reasons why. Here's some off field reasons.
This year's free agent class is really really weak. The #1 Free Agent for the Niners is Trent Williams, who the Niners have a leg up to sign. He has even said he doesn't need top dollar to stay with Niners. After that, its DE Yannick Ngakoue, who is only 26. Both these guys will carry roughly a $15M+ price tags, or a bit more than Garoppolo at current salary. Ngakoue is the only big fish Free Agent I see that would be worth pursuing. All the other ones that might be upgrades are 30+, and don't play a need position. Trent Williams is worth signing at 33 because he plays a position that ages well, he had a whole year off, and doesn't have an injury history. So the Niners are better off signing their own Free Agents for the most part, known quantities who mostly will not break the bank.
The Niners have three choices with Garoppolo and QB position:
- Status quo: Bring back Garoppolo on current deal, sign Williams, let a lot of guys go and fill in roster with unproven draft picks.
Pro: Not really any I can see. Con: Lose many proven guys, have to pray Garoppolo stays healthy and improves from 2020lets
- New contract: Get a big price reduction with incentives and make a one-year deal, that allows more of their own free agents to be retained, sign a Jameis Winston, and maybe even lets them sign Ngakoue, and maybe draft a 2nd-3rd round QB, like a Trask, Mills or Book.
Pro: You have improved roster around Garoppolo and reduced your liability if he can't perform. Con: None, unless hell-bent on Top 3-rated QB.
- Rookie QB: Cut Garoppolo and do whatever is needed to land the guy you want. Use the money saved to retain your own free agents and sign Ngakoue, and Jameis Winston to create a legit QB competition. Potentially add a lot of players in draft.
Pro: Nothing gives a team more advantage in NFL than a good QB on a rookie deal, and keep your Free Agents especially if used draft capital to get your QB. Con: Rookie QB failing is costly, especially if a lot of draft capital is used to get.
It is rare, but not as rare as you might think for a rookie QB to come in and help team challenge for a championship. Pittsburgh did it with Roethlisberger. Seattle did it with Wilson. Dallas did it with Prescott. But in none of those cases did getting those guys require giving up draft capital. I think the Niners have an even more talented overall roster than any of those teams did when they had rookie QBs. The Eagles did give up draft capital to get Carson Wentz, and though he got hurt, he did enough to get his team in position for Foles to take over and win them a Super Bowl.
If you do a great job scouting and can project the QB you want in the 2nd or 3rd round, you win championships. Say for instance, Shanahan identifies Kyle Trask as the guy he wants, and he can be had in the second round, and Trask steps in and is better than Garoppolo right away. You have instant Super Bowl contender, maybe even with a less than great OL.
For me, you must go with the second or third option. Staying status quo is just not going to cut it. I have to think Kyle Shanahan, having the two Super Bowls slip through his fingers, and 3/4 of his years as head coach not having a serviceable QB, is ready to roll the dice on something bold to have a breakthrough.
It would be worth trading their entire allotment of picks in this year's draft to get who they want. Everyone knows the on-field reasons why. Here's some off field reasons.
This year's free agent class is really really weak. The #1 Free Agent for the Niners is Trent Williams, who the Niners have a leg up to sign. He has even said he doesn't need top dollar to stay with Niners. After that, its DE Yannick Ngakoue, who is only 26. Both these guys will carry roughly a $15M+ price tags, or a bit more than Garoppolo at current salary. Ngakoue is the only big fish Free Agent I see that would be worth pursuing. All the other ones that might be upgrades are 30+, and don't play a need position. Trent Williams is worth signing at 33 because he plays a position that ages well, he had a whole year off, and doesn't have an injury history. So the Niners are better off signing their own Free Agents for the most part, known quantities who mostly will not break the bank.
The Niners have three choices with Garoppolo and QB position:
- Status quo: Bring back Garoppolo on current deal, sign Williams, let a lot of guys go and fill in roster with unproven draft picks.
Pro: Not really any I can see. Con: Lose many proven guys, have to pray Garoppolo stays healthy and improves from 2020lets
- New contract: Get a big price reduction with incentives and make a one-year deal, that allows more of their own free agents to be retained, sign a Jameis Winston, and maybe even lets them sign Ngakoue, and maybe draft a 2nd-3rd round QB, like a Trask, Mills or Book.
Pro: You have improved roster around Garoppolo and reduced your liability if he can't perform. Con: None, unless hell-bent on Top 3-rated QB.
- Rookie QB: Cut Garoppolo and do whatever is needed to land the guy you want. Use the money saved to retain your own free agents and sign Ngakoue, and Jameis Winston to create a legit QB competition. Potentially add a lot of players in draft.
Pro: Nothing gives a team more advantage in NFL than a good QB on a rookie deal, and keep your Free Agents especially if used draft capital to get your QB. Con: Rookie QB failing is costly, especially if a lot of draft capital is used to get.
It is rare, but not as rare as you might think for a rookie QB to come in and help team challenge for a championship. Pittsburgh did it with Roethlisberger. Seattle did it with Wilson. Dallas did it with Prescott. But in none of those cases did getting those guys require giving up draft capital. I think the Niners have an even more talented overall roster than any of those teams did when they had rookie QBs. The Eagles did give up draft capital to get Carson Wentz, and though he got hurt, he did enough to get his team in position for Foles to take over and win them a Super Bowl.
If you do a great job scouting and can project the QB you want in the 2nd or 3rd round, you win championships. Say for instance, Shanahan identifies Kyle Trask as the guy he wants, and he can be had in the second round, and Trask steps in and is better than Garoppolo right away. You have instant Super Bowl contender, maybe even with a less than great OL.
For me, you must go with the second or third option. Staying status quo is just not going to cut it. I have to think Kyle Shanahan, having the two Super Bowls slip through his fingers, and 3/4 of his years as head coach not having a serviceable QB, is ready to roll the dice on something bold to have a breakthrough.