[Papa John]

QB1 is obviously important, but my worries extend across the defense. In 2020 the defense was, statistically, one of the worst amongst the Power 5 teams. But they managed to come up with big plays at key times:

Game 4 vs UW -- Stanford up 31-23 in the 4th quarter when Austin Jones loses a fumble that is returned to the Stanford 10. 1st and goal UW is called for holding. 2nd down and goal at the 20, UW runs for 1 yard and called for holding. 2nd down and goal at the 29, UW throws incomplete pass. 3rd down and goal at the 29, UW runs for 2 yards. UW has to settle for 45 yard field goal. (Stanford offense takes over after the kickoff at its own 12 and runs out the clock.)

Game 5 vs OSU -- Stanford up 27-24 after a Toner field goal late in the 4th quarter. Jet Toner kicks off OOB and OSU takes over at its own 35 with 1:48 left in the game. OSU converts a 4th and 2 and has 2nd down and 10 at the Stanford 35 with 55 seconds left. OSU QB scrambles to the Stanford 16 where Gabe Reid forces a fumble, recovered by Caleb Robinson. (Stanford takes two knees to end the game.)

Game 6 vs UCLA -- Stanford up 48-47 in 2nd OT. UCLA goes for two and Stanford stuffs the run. Prior to that stuff, the UCLA RB, Brittain Brown, rushed for 219 yards on 29 carries.

I don't know if the bend-and-break-but-don't-break-when-it-really-counts approach is sustainable for 2021. I expect somewhere between 5 and 7 wins unless the defense takes a major step forward.

[Papa John]

QB1 is obviously important, but my worries extend across the defense. In 2020 the defense was, statistically, one of the worst amongst the Power 5 teams. But they managed to come up with big plays at key times:

Game 4 vs UW -- Stanford up 31-23 in the 4th quarter when Austin Jones loses a fumble that is returned to the Stanford 10. 1st and goal UW is called for holding. 2nd down and goal at the 20, UW runs for 1 yard and called for holding. 2nd down and goal at the 29, UW throws incomplete pass. 3rd down and goal at the 29, UW runs for 2 yards. UW has to settle for 45 yard field goal. (Stanford offense takes over after the kickoff at its own 12 and runs out the clock.)

Game 5 vs OSU -- Stanford up 27-24 after a Toner field goal late in the 4th quarter. Jet Toner kicks off OOB and OSU takes over at its own 35 with 1:48 left in the game. OSU converts a 4th and 2 and has 2nd down and 10 at the Stanford 35 with 55 seconds left. OSU QB scrambles to the Stanford 16 where Gabe Reid forces a fumble, recovered by Caleb Robinson. (Stanford takes two knees to end the game.)

Game 6 vs UCLA -- Stanford up 48-47 in 2nd OT. UCLA goes for two and Stanford stuffs the run. Prior to that stuff, the UCLA RB, Brittain Brown, rushed for 219 yards on 29 carries.

I don't know if the bend-and-break-but-don't-break-when-it-really-counts approach is sustainable for 2021. I expect somewhere between 5 and 7 wins unless the defense takes a major step forward.