[CompSci87]

Don’t get the ESPN win probability calculator.  When we were up 3-0 early in the game, it gave us an 84.7% chance of winning.  With a 6-point halftime lead, it gives us an 84.4% chance of winning.  Generally speaking, if you are performing as expected, then the win probability should improve over time because there is less time left for the other team to beat us.  I don’t think 84% at halftime is low; I’m just surprised how optimistic it was with us holding a 3-0 lead.

Put another way, what is more likely, Arizona out scoring us by at least 7 in 20 minutes or out scoring us by at least 4 in 38 1/2 min?

BC

Maybe they take the ranking difference into account early. Otherwise there's no reason a 3-0 lead early in the first quarter should give much more than a 50% win probability.

[CompSci87]

Don’t get the ESPN win probability calculator.  When we were up 3-0 early in the game, it gave us an 84.7% chance of winning.  With a 6-point halftime lead, it gives us an 84.4% chance of winning.  Generally speaking, if you are performing as expected, then the win probability should improve over time because there is less time left for the other team to beat us.  I don’t think 84% at halftime is low; I’m just surprised how optimistic it was with us holding a 3-0 lead.

Put another way, what is more likely, Arizona out scoring us by at least 7 in 20 minutes or out scoring us by at least 4 in 38 1/2 min?

BC

Maybe they take the ranking difference into account early. Otherwise there's no reason a 3-0 lead early in the first quarter should give much more than a 50% win probability.