03-17-2021, 01:28 PM
ITA Rankings
New ITA rankings out today, and Stanford drops two spots to #26 (beating St. Mary's in your only match of the week is not a great resume-booster).
Here's the Top 10, plus the other Pac-12 teams and teams on our schedule who are ranked:
1. UNC
2. Texas
3. Georgia
4. Pepperdine
5. UCLA
6. Florida State
7. Northwestern
8. Georgia Tech
9. Duke
10. Ohio State
20. Cal
24. USC
25. Arizona State
26. Stanford
39. Washington State
42. Washington
Colorado is 3rd and Oregon is 5th in the "others receiving votes" for an equivalent to 53rd and 55th.
Schedule Update
The schedule continues to be fleshed out on the fly here. Not only has the Pepperdine match been confirmed for Friday, April 2 (11:00am at Stanford), but we've added UCSB for a week from today, Wednesday, March 24 at 12:00pm (again, at Stanford). Here's what's left:
Friday, 3/19 at 1:30pm: vs. ASU
Saturday, 3/20 at Noon: vs. Arizona
Wednesday, 3/24 at Noon: vs. UCSB
Friday, 3/26 at 2:00pm: vs. Wazzu
Saturday, 3/27 at Noon: vs. UW
Friday, 4/2 at 11:00am: vs. Pepperdine
Sunday, 4/4 at 11:00am: at Oregon
Friday, 4/9 at 1:30pm: at UCLA
Saturday, 4/10 at Noon: at USC
Friday, 4/16 at 1:30pm: vs. Cal
4/23-4/26: Pac-12 Championships in San Diego
That makes for 15 regular-season matches, plus up to 3 in the Pac-12 tournament for a total of 18. That's six fewer than we had in the 2019 spring season, but that clearance to have events on campus was just a few weeks too late to let us get ITA Kick-Off Weekend (and thus Indoor Nationals) in, so that's not too bad. The difference, of course, is that our overall strength of schedule is significantly worse than it has been the last few years, with teams like Santa Clara, UC Davis, and St. Mary's (all three of which regularly feature on our schedule), but without marquee non-conference opponents like Texas, Vanderbilt, or the type of teams we'd get at Indoor Nationals like UNC, Georgia, or Michigan. Not only does it make it hard for our players to develop when they don't get those challenging, high-pressure matches, but it makes it hard for either the coaches or the ranking algorithm to get a sense of where Stanford ought to rank. We don't have any margin for error this year. Say we beat everyone on our schedule except for Pepperdine and UCLA (who we'll play in LA and then probably again in San Diego at Pac-12s). Do the coaches look at that resume and say it's the resume of a top 16 team? Not sure they do.
I'll tell you this, though. The seeding committee will face a lot of pressure to seed Stanford fairly, because we'll be the "lower-ranked" team that nobody wants to face. In the national round of 16, the #1 seed should beat the #16 team handily, but if we're that #16 team because of covid-related scheduling issues out of the team's control? Well, if I'm UNC, I'm seething that what could be a national semi or championship match takes place in the Round of 16. The benefit of coaches being more involved here means that you might see some more jumps from the ITA rankings to the NCAA seeds to account for issues like that.
It's a useful lens through which to view our NCAA seed chances, though. We have likely three matches against Top 5 teams this year: UCLA twice and Pepperdine. If we win all three or go 2-1, our seed will be in line with our preseason rank of #4. If we go 1-2, we're a top 10 team and we get to host in the postseason. If we go 0-3 but beat everyone else, our best wins will be over teams ranked in the high teens (at best), so what's the resume-based argument for being higher than the mid-teens ourselves? (The eye test is one thing, but what's the argument that we've earned a better seed this season?)
New ITA rankings out today, and Stanford drops two spots to #26 (beating St. Mary's in your only match of the week is not a great resume-booster).
Here's the Top 10, plus the other Pac-12 teams and teams on our schedule who are ranked:
1. UNC
2. Texas
3. Georgia
4. Pepperdine
5. UCLA
6. Florida State
7. Northwestern
8. Georgia Tech
9. Duke
10. Ohio State
20. Cal
24. USC
25. Arizona State
26. Stanford
39. Washington State
42. Washington
Colorado is 3rd and Oregon is 5th in the "others receiving votes" for an equivalent to 53rd and 55th.
Schedule Update
The schedule continues to be fleshed out on the fly here. Not only has the Pepperdine match been confirmed for Friday, April 2 (11:00am at Stanford), but we've added UCSB for a week from today, Wednesday, March 24 at 12:00pm (again, at Stanford). Here's what's left:
Friday, 3/19 at 1:30pm: vs. ASU
Saturday, 3/20 at Noon: vs. Arizona
Wednesday, 3/24 at Noon: vs. UCSB
Friday, 3/26 at 2:00pm: vs. Wazzu
Saturday, 3/27 at Noon: vs. UW
Friday, 4/2 at 11:00am: vs. Pepperdine
Sunday, 4/4 at 11:00am: at Oregon
Friday, 4/9 at 1:30pm: at UCLA
Saturday, 4/10 at Noon: at USC
Friday, 4/16 at 1:30pm: vs. Cal
4/23-4/26: Pac-12 Championships in San Diego
That makes for 15 regular-season matches, plus up to 3 in the Pac-12 tournament for a total of 18. That's six fewer than we had in the 2019 spring season, but that clearance to have events on campus was just a few weeks too late to let us get ITA Kick-Off Weekend (and thus Indoor Nationals) in, so that's not too bad. The difference, of course, is that our overall strength of schedule is significantly worse than it has been the last few years, with teams like Santa Clara, UC Davis, and St. Mary's (all three of which regularly feature on our schedule), but without marquee non-conference opponents like Texas, Vanderbilt, or the type of teams we'd get at Indoor Nationals like UNC, Georgia, or Michigan. Not only does it make it hard for our players to develop when they don't get those challenging, high-pressure matches, but it makes it hard for either the coaches or the ranking algorithm to get a sense of where Stanford ought to rank. We don't have any margin for error this year. Say we beat everyone on our schedule except for Pepperdine and UCLA (who we'll play in LA and then probably again in San Diego at Pac-12s). Do the coaches look at that resume and say it's the resume of a top 16 team? Not sure they do.
I'll tell you this, though. The seeding committee will face a lot of pressure to seed Stanford fairly, because we'll be the "lower-ranked" team that nobody wants to face. In the national round of 16, the #1 seed should beat the #16 team handily, but if we're that #16 team because of covid-related scheduling issues out of the team's control? Well, if I'm UNC, I'm seething that what could be a national semi or championship match takes place in the Round of 16. The benefit of coaches being more involved here means that you might see some more jumps from the ITA rankings to the NCAA seeds to account for issues like that.
It's a useful lens through which to view our NCAA seed chances, though. We have likely three matches against Top 5 teams this year: UCLA twice and Pepperdine. If we win all three or go 2-1, our seed will be in line with our preseason rank of #4. If we go 1-2, we're a top 10 team and we get to host in the postseason. If we go 0-3 but beat everyone else, our best wins will be over teams ranked in the high teens (at best), so what's the resume-based argument for being higher than the mid-teens ourselves? (The eye test is one thing, but what's the argument that we've earned a better seed this season?)