[ColoradoTree]

I'm curious CT what your take is on the current state of the team based on this match, which was a lot closer than the 4-1 score indicates. It is interesting that singles #2 and 3 were our strongest positions in this match, given that the loss of Lord and Lampl at those positions was our big loss from the previous championship team. Our depth did not assert itself as strongly as I would have thought; is it really there?

Some of it is that ASU's Morlet is a freshman and a good player and she's tougher than most #4s we'll run into. Some of it might be that Choy wasn't super sharp. Not sure. But overall? I'm not sure my assessment is much different than it was last year--we've got a #1, a couple of #3s, and a bunch of #5/#6 types. We're a top 5 team, but a borderline one, and we're not a team I'd bet the farm on winning a championship. 

But that's an assessment of the team that involves having either Blake or Geller, but not both. And Blake is back in the lineup today while Geller rests. Terrific news! But let's circle back to that. 

Choy at 4 is a bit of a stretch. She's better than Higuchi, but not so much better that I see her as a future top-half-of-the-lineup player. She's going to get some hard hitters at 4 that overwhelm her. Shin--well, Shin has just never really progressed, and in fact seems to have regressed a bit since her freshman year. And the lack of consistency in who plays at 6 is both a positive (in that we have a handful of players who've gotten enough match experience to help out in the postseason if called upon) and a negative (in that whoever is playing 6 on a given day hasn't gotten as much experience as I'd like in overcoming adversity).

Arbuthnott is going to be overmatched against most good teams we play. She's not truly a #2, and I think we'd be set up better if she were dropped down a line--or even two. 

I'd like to see this lineup: (1) Gordon; (2) Blake; (3) Geller; (4) Arbuthnott; (5) Choy; and (6) a combination of Higuchi, Shin, Madurawe, and Houghton. I think that's our best 6. But as it happens, keeping Arbuthnott at 2 with our full-strength lineup means that our likelihood of winning the overall match increases a bit, as the probabilities of getting wins at 3 and 4 increase even as the likelihood of getting a win at 2 stays lower. But however it shakes out between Blake, Geller, and Arbuthnott, pushing Choy to 5 and Shin to 6 is where we'll see the biggest impact. 

My assessment of us as a top-5-ish-but-not-championship-caliber team is premised on last year's roster, and it didn't change with Geller swapped in for Blake this year. But with both? We're more comfortably top 5 and could absolutely make some noise at NCAAs.

[ColoradoTree]

I'm curious CT what your take is on the current state of the team based on this match, which was a lot closer than the 4-1 score indicates. It is interesting that singles #2 and 3 were our strongest positions in this match, given that the loss of Lord and Lampl at those positions was our big loss from the previous championship team. Our depth did not assert itself as strongly as I would have thought; is it really there?

Some of it is that ASU's Morlet is a freshman and a good player and she's tougher than most #4s we'll run into. Some of it might be that Choy wasn't super sharp. Not sure. But overall? I'm not sure my assessment is much different than it was last year--we've got a #1, a couple of #3s, and a bunch of #5/#6 types. We're a top 5 team, but a borderline one, and we're not a team I'd bet the farm on winning a championship. 

But that's an assessment of the team that involves having either Blake or Geller, but not both. And Blake is back in the lineup today while Geller rests. Terrific news! But let's circle back to that. 

Choy at 4 is a bit of a stretch. She's better than Higuchi, but not so much better that I see her as a future top-half-of-the-lineup player. She's going to get some hard hitters at 4 that overwhelm her. Shin--well, Shin has just never really progressed, and in fact seems to have regressed a bit since her freshman year. And the lack of consistency in who plays at 6 is both a positive (in that we have a handful of players who've gotten enough match experience to help out in the postseason if called upon) and a negative (in that whoever is playing 6 on a given day hasn't gotten as much experience as I'd like in overcoming adversity).

Arbuthnott is going to be overmatched against most good teams we play. She's not truly a #2, and I think we'd be set up better if she were dropped down a line--or even two. 

I'd like to see this lineup: (1) Gordon; (2) Blake; (3) Geller; (4) Arbuthnott; (5) Choy; and (6) a combination of Higuchi, Shin, Madurawe, and Houghton. I think that's our best 6. But as it happens, keeping Arbuthnott at 2 with our full-strength lineup means that our likelihood of winning the overall match increases a bit, as the probabilities of getting wins at 3 and 4 increase even as the likelihood of getting a win at 2 stays lower. But however it shakes out between Blake, Geller, and Arbuthnott, pushing Choy to 5 and Shin to 6 is where we'll see the biggest impact. 

My assessment of us as a top-5-ish-but-not-championship-caliber team is premised on last year's roster, and it didn't change with Geller swapped in for Blake this year. But with both? We're more comfortably top 5 and could absolutely make some noise at NCAAs.