[BostonCard]

Below are stats for all the players mentioned, plus Aari, Kiana, and Cameron.

I tried to avoid duplicating any data (in normal stats, Pts, FG%, 3FG% all duplicate data).

I collected Points, FG Misses, OR, DR, PF, A, TO, STL, BLK, and normalized them to 40 minutes. (Right half of the table).

I made the best values bold.  Note the bottom line.



This doesn't account for the quality of the opponents (UConn won by an average of 30+ points.  Buecker played 36 minutes on average!)



This is admittedly ad hoc.  I'd welcome better estimates.   If I had more stats (such as team's OR%, etc.), I could maybe do better.   But it is one rough way of measuring net points.



A possession is worth about 45% chance of making a 2PT shot.  About 0.9 points..

A point is a point.

FG misses cost you a possession about 80% of the time.  About -0.72 points.

An OR is worth 80% of an extra possession

A DR is worth 20% of an extra possession

A PF results in about 1.5FT whose value is 0.7pt each

A TO costs a possession.

A STL is worth a possession.

A BLK results in a change of possession about half the time.

An Assist is worth about 0.5 (that's a WAG).

A FTA represents about 2/3 of a foul on the other team, with a WAG of a foul on the other team being worth 0.5pts. (FTM is already in Points)



Value is the sum of all the components.


Any one know why ESPN picked Collier as probable #1 in the draft?  There's nothing that stands out that much.  A weak class?

Thanks MT, I think it is really appreciated.  I largely mirror CTCard's take and will note that no system is perfect.  I had a couple other small comments for your consideration:
A block is probably worth more than the 50% of the time it results in a change in possession.  For one, it has downstream effects  by causing the opponent to think twice the next time she goes up for a shot.  For another, most of the time a blocked shot recovered by the offense has not hit the rim; thus the shot clock will have less time left.  Which brings me to the other point, which CTCard touched on.  I would love to see the expected points broken down by how much time is left on the shot clock.  Early on the shot clock, a player who gets the ball has the luxury of turning down a shot if she is well-defended and letting the offense try again.  As the shot clock starts going down, she no doubt becomes aware of the fact that the number of future opportunities to take a shot are limited.  And as the shot clock is approaching zero, the shooter knows that even a well-defended off balance shot that has a greater than 0% chance of going in is better than a shot clock violation.  Likewise, towards the end of the game, when trailing, it is better to take a suboptimal shot early than waste time to try to get a marginally better shot.

Anyways, it is a good framework.

And I agree with CTCard's assessment on Bueckers versus McDonald.  Not only is there a question of relative value to the team, but also of the teams relative value to the player.  McDonald is much more likely to be double-teamed and attract the focus of the opponent's defensive effort than Bueckers (who still will attract focus, but for whom the opponent cannot afford to ignore her teammates).  Bueckers is much more likely to be set up with higher quality screens, with penetration that can kick the ball back out to a more open player, etc.  Buecker's assists are probably padded by the fact that the players she passes it to are more skilled and thus more likely to convert the basket, etc.

Or to quote an aphorism; if statistics are a lightpost, they are meant to be used more for illumination than for support.

BC

[BostonCard]

Below are stats for all the players mentioned, plus Aari, Kiana, and Cameron.

I tried to avoid duplicating any data (in normal stats, Pts, FG%, 3FG% all duplicate data).

I collected Points, FG Misses, OR, DR, PF, A, TO, STL, BLK, and normalized them to 40 minutes. (Right half of the table).

I made the best values bold.  Note the bottom line.



This doesn't account for the quality of the opponents (UConn won by an average of 30+ points.  Buecker played 36 minutes on average!)



This is admittedly ad hoc.  I'd welcome better estimates.   If I had more stats (such as team's OR%, etc.), I could maybe do better.   But it is one rough way of measuring net points.



A possession is worth about 45% chance of making a 2PT shot.  About 0.9 points..

A point is a point.

FG misses cost you a possession about 80% of the time.  About -0.72 points.

An OR is worth 80% of an extra possession

A DR is worth 20% of an extra possession

A PF results in about 1.5FT whose value is 0.7pt each

A TO costs a possession.

A STL is worth a possession.

A BLK results in a change of possession about half the time.

An Assist is worth about 0.5 (that's a WAG).

A FTA represents about 2/3 of a foul on the other team, with a WAG of a foul on the other team being worth 0.5pts. (FTM is already in Points)



Value is the sum of all the components.


Any one know why ESPN picked Collier as probable #1 in the draft?  There's nothing that stands out that much.  A weak class?

Thanks MT, I think it is really appreciated.  I largely mirror CTCard's take and will note that no system is perfect.  I had a couple other small comments for your consideration:
A block is probably worth more than the 50% of the time it results in a change in possession.  For one, it has downstream effects  by causing the opponent to think twice the next time she goes up for a shot.  For another, most of the time a blocked shot recovered by the offense has not hit the rim; thus the shot clock will have less time left.  Which brings me to the other point, which CTCard touched on.  I would love to see the expected points broken down by how much time is left on the shot clock.  Early on the shot clock, a player who gets the ball has the luxury of turning down a shot if she is well-defended and letting the offense try again.  As the shot clock starts going down, she no doubt becomes aware of the fact that the number of future opportunities to take a shot are limited.  And as the shot clock is approaching zero, the shooter knows that even a well-defended off balance shot that has a greater than 0% chance of going in is better than a shot clock violation.  Likewise, towards the end of the game, when trailing, it is better to take a suboptimal shot early than waste time to try to get a marginally better shot.

Anyways, it is a good framework.

And I agree with CTCard's assessment on Bueckers versus McDonald.  Not only is there a question of relative value to the team, but also of the teams relative value to the player.  McDonald is much more likely to be double-teamed and attract the focus of the opponent's defensive effort than Bueckers (who still will attract focus, but for whom the opponent cannot afford to ignore her teammates).  Bueckers is much more likely to be set up with higher quality screens, with penetration that can kick the ball back out to a more open player, etc.  Buecker's assists are probably padded by the fact that the players she passes it to are more skilled and thus more likely to convert the basket, etc.

Or to quote an aphorism; if statistics are a lightpost, they are meant to be used more for illumination than for support.

BC