At the start of this season, no one really knew what was going to happen with covid, last year having all the racing canceled, and the natural attrition of seniors and incoming freshmen (would some defer for a year to avoid zoom school?). As it turns out, the Stanford women announced that they were back in a big way with their dual meet defeat of Cal and with their strong performance at Pac-12s, finishing second to Washington in most events except for the varsity four, which won the event. Interestingly enough, there were clear dropoffs in talent or finish time across the major rowing power conferences, but because of the way selections were done, some programs who had poor finishes in their conference championships were still selected for the championship regatta.
Stanford was not one of those; in fact, Stanford was probably one of the first few at-large selections after the automatic qualifiers (conference champions) were sorted out.
With the heats and semifinals finished, Stanford has indeed asserted themselves as contenders for the NCAA crown. Coming into the regatta, Stanford was seeded third in the varsity eight, fourth in the second varsity eight, and first in the varsity four. The varsity eight has upended the script by winning their heat (expected) and winning their semifinal over Washington (unexpected). Should Stanford be confident or worried? I'm generally of the opinion that you should keep your powder dry if you can and save your legs for the final. A couple of years ago, there were some barnburner semifinals where multiple crews were in contention for that last third-place, grand final qualifying spot. In the end, less then two seconds separated all the crews around that spot, and the crews who were involved all had lackluster results in their respective finals the next day. At least, that's my dusty recollection...
So I'm not sure if there's much to be gained from having chased down Washington in a semifinal where both Stanford and Washington were assured of advancing anyway. Yaz Farooq, the current Washington and former Stanford championship coach, surely is not losing sleep over this. The conditions at Benderson Park are pretty fair across lanes, so lane assignment isn't anything I'd worry about. I just hope Stanford has enough in their legs to win tomorrow. (Having said that, knowing that you're *capable* of beating a heretofore unbeaten defending national champion crew is great psychological fodder when your coxswain is calling for more speed tomorrow and you don't know if you have it in you to give -- winning does have its advantages.)
Anyway, in the other semifinal, Texas had solid wins over Michigan and Rutgers, who also advanced. Rutgers was a solid length up over Ohio State for that third qualifying spot, denying the Buckeyes the pleasure of having all three of their boats in their respective grand finals.
In the second varsity eights event, Stanford won their heat as expected and took second in their heat (somewhat unexpected) behind Texas but over Virginia, which had been seeded higher than Stanford coming into the weekend. This continued the theme of Virginia and the ACC recording not-great results all Friday morning. Stanford was merely 1.7 sec back of Texas in the semifinal however, and this might put them within striking distance of a win tomorrow.
In the varsity four event, Stanford won this event over Washington at the Pac-12s by 12 seconds (abnormally large margin). This weekend saw the top-ranked four in the nation win their heat and semifinal, with the semifinal win being a five-second win over second-place Washington (much more reasonable). I think Stanford is the favorite to win this event tomorrow, but because of the way the overall team points are assigned, the other event finishes are going to matter much more. Still, these points can matter if the other programs stumble hard.
It is rather abnormal to have five of your six grand final competitors all have entries in all three boat classes. Notably, we're missing full Ivy League participation this year, and the lack of race experience has probably hurt Brown and Princeton, the two Ivy programs who were selected for the championship regatta. That just means that we're not sure who's going to win it all, as five teams have that chance (okay, probably only three teams: Texas, Washington, and Stanford -- Michigan and Virginia advanced despite recording losses to those three teams).
I would love to see Stanford win it all, but I dare not make such a trite wish. It's very difficult to predict things this year because Texas and Washington have been so strong and yet have never faced each other in any race (not even this weekend). But because Stanford beat Washington in the semifinal, let's say that optimistically, I could see Stanford winning the varsity eight event, taking second in the 2V behind Washington, and winning the four. That's a guaranteed NCAA championship. If I were to make a very median/mediocre prediction, it would be third place for both eights and victory in the four, which reflects the seeding and additional information that the second varsity eight is definitely faster than Virginia. If I may be so impetuous, there does seem to be a dropoff after the top three programs (Stanford, Texas, and Washington). And if Texas finds themselves down after the first 500m, do they know how to row from behind? It's very different rowing with a lead than rowing from behind. Stanford is the least proven of the three programs by the most recent NCAA finish, but given the result of the varsity eight semifinal, there definitely more upside than I had earlier thought.
Dare we hope that the varsity eight's semifinal victory portends greater things to come? Tune in to the livestream tomorrow for a 6-7 minute race and find out!
Heat video (day 1 morning session): https://www.ncaa.com/video/rowing/2021-0...ull-replay
Stanford 1V - 1:06:05
Stanford 2V - 2:03:10
Stanford V4 - 2:14:51 (immediately following the Stanford 2V race!)
Stanford didn't have to row in the afternoon session (the repechages) because they qualified directly to the semifinals from the heats. However, if you're curious about those races, the link is here: https://www.ncaa.com/video/rowing/2021-0...ull-replay
Semifinal video: https://www.ncaa.com/video/rowing/2021-0...ull-replay
Stanford 1V - 00:31:00.
Stanford 2V - 1:18:46.
Stanford V4 - 1:50:59.
All rowing videos: https://www.ncaa.com/video/rowing
Stanford was not one of those; in fact, Stanford was probably one of the first few at-large selections after the automatic qualifiers (conference champions) were sorted out.
With the heats and semifinals finished, Stanford has indeed asserted themselves as contenders for the NCAA crown. Coming into the regatta, Stanford was seeded third in the varsity eight, fourth in the second varsity eight, and first in the varsity four. The varsity eight has upended the script by winning their heat (expected) and winning their semifinal over Washington (unexpected). Should Stanford be confident or worried? I'm generally of the opinion that you should keep your powder dry if you can and save your legs for the final. A couple of years ago, there were some barnburner semifinals where multiple crews were in contention for that last third-place, grand final qualifying spot. In the end, less then two seconds separated all the crews around that spot, and the crews who were involved all had lackluster results in their respective finals the next day. At least, that's my dusty recollection...
So I'm not sure if there's much to be gained from having chased down Washington in a semifinal where both Stanford and Washington were assured of advancing anyway. Yaz Farooq, the current Washington and former Stanford championship coach, surely is not losing sleep over this. The conditions at Benderson Park are pretty fair across lanes, so lane assignment isn't anything I'd worry about. I just hope Stanford has enough in their legs to win tomorrow. (Having said that, knowing that you're *capable* of beating a heretofore unbeaten defending national champion crew is great psychological fodder when your coxswain is calling for more speed tomorrow and you don't know if you have it in you to give -- winning does have its advantages.)
Anyway, in the other semifinal, Texas had solid wins over Michigan and Rutgers, who also advanced. Rutgers was a solid length up over Ohio State for that third qualifying spot, denying the Buckeyes the pleasure of having all three of their boats in their respective grand finals.
In the second varsity eights event, Stanford won their heat as expected and took second in their heat (somewhat unexpected) behind Texas but over Virginia, which had been seeded higher than Stanford coming into the weekend. This continued the theme of Virginia and the ACC recording not-great results all Friday morning. Stanford was merely 1.7 sec back of Texas in the semifinal however, and this might put them within striking distance of a win tomorrow.
In the varsity four event, Stanford won this event over Washington at the Pac-12s by 12 seconds (abnormally large margin). This weekend saw the top-ranked four in the nation win their heat and semifinal, with the semifinal win being a five-second win over second-place Washington (much more reasonable). I think Stanford is the favorite to win this event tomorrow, but because of the way the overall team points are assigned, the other event finishes are going to matter much more. Still, these points can matter if the other programs stumble hard.
It is rather abnormal to have five of your six grand final competitors all have entries in all three boat classes. Notably, we're missing full Ivy League participation this year, and the lack of race experience has probably hurt Brown and Princeton, the two Ivy programs who were selected for the championship regatta. That just means that we're not sure who's going to win it all, as five teams have that chance (okay, probably only three teams: Texas, Washington, and Stanford -- Michigan and Virginia advanced despite recording losses to those three teams).
I would love to see Stanford win it all, but I dare not make such a trite wish. It's very difficult to predict things this year because Texas and Washington have been so strong and yet have never faced each other in any race (not even this weekend). But because Stanford beat Washington in the semifinal, let's say that optimistically, I could see Stanford winning the varsity eight event, taking second in the 2V behind Washington, and winning the four. That's a guaranteed NCAA championship. If I were to make a very median/mediocre prediction, it would be third place for both eights and victory in the four, which reflects the seeding and additional information that the second varsity eight is definitely faster than Virginia. If I may be so impetuous, there does seem to be a dropoff after the top three programs (Stanford, Texas, and Washington). And if Texas finds themselves down after the first 500m, do they know how to row from behind? It's very different rowing with a lead than rowing from behind. Stanford is the least proven of the three programs by the most recent NCAA finish, but given the result of the varsity eight semifinal, there definitely more upside than I had earlier thought.
Dare we hope that the varsity eight's semifinal victory portends greater things to come? Tune in to the livestream tomorrow for a 6-7 minute race and find out!
Heat video (day 1 morning session): https://www.ncaa.com/video/rowing/2021-0...ull-replay
Stanford 1V - 1:06:05
Stanford 2V - 2:03:10
Stanford V4 - 2:14:51 (immediately following the Stanford 2V race!)
Stanford didn't have to row in the afternoon session (the repechages) because they qualified directly to the semifinals from the heats. However, if you're curious about those races, the link is here: https://www.ncaa.com/video/rowing/2021-0...ull-replay
Semifinal video: https://www.ncaa.com/video/rowing/2021-0...ull-replay
Stanford 1V - 00:31:00.
Stanford 2V - 1:18:46.
Stanford V4 - 1:50:59.
All rowing videos: https://www.ncaa.com/video/rowing