08-25-2021, 07:25 PM
(08-25-2021, 06:46 PM)teejers1 Wrote:(08-25-2021, 02:48 PM)lex24 Wrote: The notion that the Giants are vulnerable because they are bad at advancing runners and such is a false narrative. If the Giants don't win the division or get beaten in the playoffs it will be because they don't hit enough home runs and their pitchers aren't dominant enough to overcome the power outage. If the Giants' opponents blast a bunch of home runs then a bunch of singles and sacrifice flies won't be enough to compensate.
Of course that will be the case if you aren't good at scoring without the long ball. I would like to know what % of Giants runners on 2B with 0 outs score without another hit.
Same thing for runners on 3B with 1 out (or 0, too).
My gut tells me the Giants are poor at that relative to the rest of the league, or perhaps more directly, relative to past Giants teams.
The point is you don't have to score runs only by the homer - or even string together 3 hits. You can go double, grounder to 2B, SF. But you knew that.
Lastly, I don't understand why homers and advancing runners are mutually exclusive (same with bunting to undefensed side of a shifted infield) - other than if you never try it you can't do it.
But whatever, the W/L record speaks for itself, and they've been fun to watch.
I don't know the percentage of times that a Giants runner on second base (no outs) has scored without another hit but obviously it's a low number (as it is for every team) but even if a team does score without any more hits it's probably a single run and not multiple runs. It's not a foundation for winning games, it's more of a pleasant surprise. Does sacrificing a runner to third in that situation increase or decrease your run (and win) expectancy? As you said, you can score with a double/ground out/sac fly but repeatedly scoring single runs in that fashion is not a sustainable or effective strategy; crooked number innings is what correlates to winning the most games.
With a runner on third and less than two outs the Giants are batting 317/366/527 for an OPS of .893 which is 9% above league average for that situation.
Homers and advancing runners don't have to be mutually exclusive, but 1) most players aren't proficient at both, especially with power-optimized swings that they don't want to tinker with, 2) only in very specific situations does trying to advance runners increase your run/win expectancy as compared to trying to hit the ball hard (not necessarily a home run), 3) a lot of players today are terrible at bunting and would need a lot of practice just to be adequate at it.
I'm not a Giants fan but I enjoy watching them too, it seems that everything has broken their way and they get contributions from the entire roster instead of being dependent on one or two stars, which is both valuable and cool.
