[CompSci87]

The math on going for it is relatively simple.  If you think you have more than a 3 in 7 chance of converting the touchdown, you should go for it because the value of a touchdown is 7 points and the value of the field goal whose points we took off the board was 3.  There are some additional caveats that go into the calculation (for example, if you don't convert, SC's subsequent possession starts at the 5 yard line or so;if you kick the field goal or score the touchdown, they get it around the 25 yard line), but broadly that is the calculation.  Last little bit if you are on the fence; generally if you are the underdog, you should be bold and take the higher variance outcome; if you are expected to win, you want to minimize the variance and reduce the likelihood that you wind up with some fluke things going against you and costing you the game.

I will note that under very similar circumstances, Helton elected to kick the field goal, and I was happy he did.  Had he elected to go for the touchdown and scored, it would been a 21-17 game instead of a 21-13 game.

BC

That's how I saw Shaw's choice. Sometimes you have to take risks to give yourself a chance to win.

Of course the way the rest of the game went, this one looked unneeded in hindsight. But obviously Shaw didn't know our passing game would click so well, defense would keep getting stops, etc.

[CompSci87]

The math on going for it is relatively simple.  If you think you have more than a 3 in 7 chance of converting the touchdown, you should go for it because the value of a touchdown is 7 points and the value of the field goal whose points we took off the board was 3.  There are some additional caveats that go into the calculation (for example, if you don't convert, SC's subsequent possession starts at the 5 yard line or so;if you kick the field goal or score the touchdown, they get it around the 25 yard line), but broadly that is the calculation.  Last little bit if you are on the fence; generally if you are the underdog, you should be bold and take the higher variance outcome; if you are expected to win, you want to minimize the variance and reduce the likelihood that you wind up with some fluke things going against you and costing you the game.

I will note that under very similar circumstances, Helton elected to kick the field goal, and I was happy he did.  Had he elected to go for the touchdown and scored, it would been a 21-17 game instead of a 21-13 game.

BC

That's how I saw Shaw's choice. Sometimes you have to take risks to give yourself a chance to win.

Of course the way the rest of the game went, this one looked unneeded in hindsight. But obviously Shaw didn't know our passing game would click so well, defense would keep getting stops, etc.