09-15-2021, 02:33 PM
(09-15-2021, 10:51 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I had 5 wins, which I thought would most likely come from Vandy, WSU, OSU, Cal, and one other. We now have that one other, even though I thought KSU was more likely than USC, so I have an easier time getting to 5. Given Washington's struggles to date (they are 0-2, scoring a grand total of 17 points against Montana and Michigan combined), I now see a path to six wins, but although I think over 5 wins is more likely than under 5 wins, I think my modal expectation is 5. There is even some further upside; neither ND (narrow wins against Toledo and FSU, who subsequently lost to Jacksonville State) nor Utah (loss to BYU) have impressed, some winning 7 or 8 is no longer as fanciful as it seemed before the season. That being said, Oregon looks to be "all that", and UCLA has finally turned the corner with Kelly, so the ceiling with this team is probably 8 wins.
Just a note about the teams on our schedule, not whether Stanford can or is likely to beat them.
Vandy - just won their first football game since November 2019. That earlier win was vs East Tennessee State, whom they managed to lose to to start out this season. Their latest win was versus a bad Colorado State team, but on the road. They'll likely be a bit optimistic to start.
UCLA - we all know they beat LSU handily. Of course LSU is showing signs of rot. Their other game this year was vs McNeese State where LSU only managed 300 yds of offense. Last year LSU was only 5-5. UCLA's other game was an easy win over Hawaii. UCLA is at least good.
Oregon - a great win over tOSU, and as many have noted it was on the road with a 9 am pacific start time. Impressive.
Strangely, Oregon has been outgained in both wins this year. Their offense struggled a bit versus Fresno, their defense versus tOSU. Of course I fear the real Oregon will be the vs. Fresno defense and the vs tOSU offense.
ASU - a trendy pick for the Pac 12 south during the preseason. That seems to be due to returning players and affection for Herm Edwards more than actual results. So far this year two meaningless wins over Southern Utah and UNLV. This week they go into BYU, which should be the first meaningful test.
WSU - they started off the season with a loss to Utah State, which can't be a good sign but WSU has started seasons with disasters before but ended up okay. They did come back with a win over Portland State - but I wouldn't call it impressive. They barely outgained Portland, and strangely for what we remember of WSU, they outrushed PSU but gained fewer pass yards.
Washington - as already covered, the beginning of their season has been atrocious. I haven't kept up with what is going on there, or their prospects for righting the ship.
Utah - first game vs Weber doesn't tell us anything. Loss vs BYU might, but BYU might also be very good. I'd also expect Utah to be better at righting early season problems than most. TBD.
OSU - lost to Purdue on the road, beat Hawaii at home. Purdue might actually be decent. Another TBD.
cal - 0-2. TCU might be a "good loss", Nevada was not. Offense might be better, defense worse.
und - also heavily discussed here. Not an impressive start, but they did win and I am sure they have plenty of potential NFL players.
As usual, once the season gets going, the schedule doesn't look quite as daunting. It's still ridiculously tough, however.