[teejers1]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up.  On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it.  To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford.  More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games.  Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program.  But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out.  The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years.  We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues.  Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year.  But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

Why do you think he can?  (Shaw hasn't built, or re-built, anything).
Why do you think he deserves anything from Stanford (aren't the tens of millions of dollars he has already received sufficient)?    

Again, you shade/spin everything in Shaw's favor and refuse to recognize the unique benefits Shaw received as part of Harbaugh inheritance.

What good is it to recruit Top 25 talent most years, yet finish ranked in 60s/70s?

And why do you think Shaw is a strong recruiter "on paper" (and important qualifier you left out) relative to his peers?  
Is it because he appeals to AA recruits?  
Or is it also possible that Stanford University has been an independent draw like no other time in our memories?

Look, I admit that Shaw is good AA role model and that appeal can help in recruiting.  But in seeking the stud ballers - the ones Stanford needs to succeed in any meaningful way (i.e., above occasional 6-6 season) - I'd bet program excellence far exceeds any other consideration, including the race of the head coach.  And right now, the program is as far from excellent as imaginable.  

P.S.  The "evidence" on the need for change has been building for years, literally since the Fiesta Bowl - and every year since - and does not merely "extend[] to two of the last three years."

[teejers1]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up.  On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it.  To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford.  More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games.  Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program.  But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out.  The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years.  We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues.  Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year.  But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

Why do you think he can?  (Shaw hasn't built, or re-built, anything).
Why do you think he deserves anything from Stanford (aren't the tens of millions of dollars he has already received sufficient)?    

Again, you shade/spin everything in Shaw's favor and refuse to recognize the unique benefits Shaw received as part of Harbaugh inheritance.

What good is it to recruit Top 25 talent most years, yet finish ranked in 60s/70s?

And why do you think Shaw is a strong recruiter "on paper" (and important qualifier you left out) relative to his peers?  
Is it because he appeals to AA recruits?  
Or is it also possible that Stanford University has been an independent draw like no other time in our memories?

Look, I admit that Shaw is good AA role model and that appeal can help in recruiting.  But in seeking the stud ballers - the ones Stanford needs to succeed in any meaningful way (i.e., above occasional 6-6 season) - I'd bet program excellence far exceeds any other consideration, including the race of the head coach.  And right now, the program is as far from excellent as imaginable.  

P.S.  The "evidence" on the need for change has been building for years, literally since the Fiesta Bowl - and every year since - and does not merely "extend[] to two of the last three years."