[gailtate]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up.  On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it.  To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford.  More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games.  Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program.  But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out.  The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years.  We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues.  Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year.  But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

I think he **can** get it done, but only if he's willing to eat a helping of humble pie and recognize that significant changes are needed not only to his coaching staff but his operating model. If he continues to stay the course with his current staff, then we will continue to see 3- and 4-win seasons.

Agree.  He CAN do it.  He just needs to realize the necessity and make the required changes, beginning first with his staff and second with his unwillingness to delegate the offensive coordinator duties.  And he should hire a staff that complements his strengths and weaknesses.  Shaw has many qualities desirable in a head coach; and where he is lacking them, he needs to hire that skill and delegate.  If he does nothing and continues to think everything is fine, that the team is just a few plays or a few players away from greatness, then we will continue to see seasons in the range of 3-9 to 6-6 (best case).  I cannot emphasize enough that he needs to hire top flight coordinators who would be capable of working for any power 5 program in the nation.  He currently does not have them, and it boggles the mind that he does not realize it.

The fact that he shows utterly no inclination to even consider acquiring coordinators of the caliber described is conclusive evidence that he CANNOT "get back up". It's just who he is.

[gailtate]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up.  On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it.  To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford.  More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games.  Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program.  But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out.  The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years.  We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues.  Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year.  But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

I think he **can** get it done, but only if he's willing to eat a helping of humble pie and recognize that significant changes are needed not only to his coaching staff but his operating model. If he continues to stay the course with his current staff, then we will continue to see 3- and 4-win seasons.

Agree.  He CAN do it.  He just needs to realize the necessity and make the required changes, beginning first with his staff and second with his unwillingness to delegate the offensive coordinator duties.  And he should hire a staff that complements his strengths and weaknesses.  Shaw has many qualities desirable in a head coach; and where he is lacking them, he needs to hire that skill and delegate.  If he does nothing and continues to think everything is fine, that the team is just a few plays or a few players away from greatness, then we will continue to see seasons in the range of 3-9 to 6-6 (best case).  I cannot emphasize enough that he needs to hire top flight coordinators who would be capable of working for any power 5 program in the nation.  He currently does not have them, and it boggles the mind that he does not realize it.

The fact that he shows utterly no inclination to even consider acquiring coordinators of the caliber described is conclusive evidence that he CANNOT "get back up". It's just who he is.