[Farm93]

Moreover, the individual athlete may not be making that decision by themselves in a vacuum.  Imagine the outcry if in the next Olympics or two, Russia or China or the US has many, many transgender athletes in swimming, tennis, basketball, volleyball, track & field, soccer, ...

That's not hard to imagine at all.   Just a brief review of East Germany's female athletes in track & field and swimming in the 1970s provides a preview to that possible future.

I realize the NCAA may struggle to create a female and then an open division in the USA, but I don't think the IOC will have the same hesitation.  Boxing, wrestling, taekwondo, and judo would also create additional complexities for the IOC.   A transgender person beating throwing, kicking, or hitting an overmatched woman could be something the IOC will want to avoid.

[Farm93]

Moreover, the individual athlete may not be making that decision by themselves in a vacuum.  Imagine the outcry if in the next Olympics or two, Russia or China or the US has many, many transgender athletes in swimming, tennis, basketball, volleyball, track & field, soccer, ...

That's not hard to imagine at all.   Just a brief review of East Germany's female athletes in track & field and swimming in the 1970s provides a preview to that possible future.

I realize the NCAA may struggle to create a female and then an open division in the USA, but I don't think the IOC will have the same hesitation.  Boxing, wrestling, taekwondo, and judo would also create additional complexities for the IOC.   A transgender person beating throwing, kicking, or hitting an overmatched woman could be something the IOC will want to avoid.