[82lsju]

I would bet on reversion to the mean.  Next year will be rough on defense, but after that we will get past our self-imposed sanctions and might surprise some people.

BC

I guess the question here is: what's our mean?  6-6?  It is true that a football season, consisting of 12 games, is a "limited sample".  Looking at last season, the Washington and WSU games could have gone either way, so we could easily have been 5-7 with the same team.  That said, the Oregon game was all but lost; and the OT thriller required several excellent plays and lucky breaks to pull the W out of the fire.  So we also could easily have been 2-10.  That's a range of 4 different seasonal outcomes.  

This sort of range is likely to happen next year, as well, but I don't see anything to suggest six wins.  With only one "gimme" in the schedule (Colgate), we could be looking at a range of 1-11 to 4-8, with reality probably in between these two bookends.  If we get to 4-8, who are the scalps?  Colgate, Oregon State at home, maybe Cal away, maybe Wazzu or ASU at home.  Anybody else we can beat?  We have the even-year challenge of 4 home games and 5 away in conference play; and those 5 away games include: Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah and Cal.  Notre Dame is also in South Bend next year.  If the schedule was tough this year, it's equally tough in 2022.

I believe we play U$C at home so unless the new coach does a magic turnaround that might also be a possible victory.
But yeah, I have a hard time seeing anything better than 4-8 also.

True.  UCLA is away next year, and we get the Trojans at home.

I'd guess the USC game will be Sat 10 Sept 2022 given USC plays Fresno State on 17 Sept 2022.

[82lsju]

I would bet on reversion to the mean.  Next year will be rough on defense, but after that we will get past our self-imposed sanctions and might surprise some people.

BC

I guess the question here is: what's our mean?  6-6?  It is true that a football season, consisting of 12 games, is a "limited sample".  Looking at last season, the Washington and WSU games could have gone either way, so we could easily have been 5-7 with the same team.  That said, the Oregon game was all but lost; and the OT thriller required several excellent plays and lucky breaks to pull the W out of the fire.  So we also could easily have been 2-10.  That's a range of 4 different seasonal outcomes.  

This sort of range is likely to happen next year, as well, but I don't see anything to suggest six wins.  With only one "gimme" in the schedule (Colgate), we could be looking at a range of 1-11 to 4-8, with reality probably in between these two bookends.  If we get to 4-8, who are the scalps?  Colgate, Oregon State at home, maybe Cal away, maybe Wazzu or ASU at home.  Anybody else we can beat?  We have the even-year challenge of 4 home games and 5 away in conference play; and those 5 away games include: Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah and Cal.  Notre Dame is also in South Bend next year.  If the schedule was tough this year, it's equally tough in 2022.

I believe we play U$C at home so unless the new coach does a magic turnaround that might also be a possible victory.
But yeah, I have a hard time seeing anything better than 4-8 also.

True.  UCLA is away next year, and we get the Trojans at home.

I'd guess the USC game will be Sat 10 Sept 2022 given USC plays Fresno State on 17 Sept 2022.