[SamuelMcF]

QBs with first round grades are their own special animal. If you realistically can bet on being a first-rounder and talk yourself into confidently predicting a 10+ year NFL career, NIL money should mean almost nothing.

Except that you can't realistically bet on being a first-rounder. Look at the last ten years' worth of 5-star quarterbacks. Having to play in college for three years makes it a much different proposition than NBA prospects who spend one season in college or G-League and can't damage their prospects that much.

Agreed. 

5* composite QBs by year, 1st round pick in bold:
2010: Phillip Sims
2011: Jeff Driskel, Braxton Miller
2012: Gunner Kiel, Jameis Winston
2013: Max Browne, Christian Hackenberg
2014: Kyle Allen
2015: Josh Rosen, Blake Barnett, Kyler Murray
2016: Shea Patterson, Jacob Eason
2017: Davis Mills, Hunter Johnson, Tua Tagovailoa
2018: Trevor Lawrence, JT Daniels, Justin Fields
2019: Spencer Rattler (lost starting job), Bo Nix (inconsistent and injured)

Many of these guys were drafted in later rounds, but not in top QB conversation. Mills, for instance, was debated as being the "best of the rest" outside the top group this past year.

[SamuelMcF]

QBs with first round grades are their own special animal. If you realistically can bet on being a first-rounder and talk yourself into confidently predicting a 10+ year NFL career, NIL money should mean almost nothing.

Except that you can't realistically bet on being a first-rounder. Look at the last ten years' worth of 5-star quarterbacks. Having to play in college for three years makes it a much different proposition than NBA prospects who spend one season in college or G-League and can't damage their prospects that much.

Agreed. 

5* composite QBs by year, 1st round pick in bold:
2010: Phillip Sims
2011: Jeff Driskel, Braxton Miller
2012: Gunner Kiel, Jameis Winston
2013: Max Browne, Christian Hackenberg
2014: Kyle Allen
2015: Josh Rosen, Blake Barnett, Kyler Murray
2016: Shea Patterson, Jacob Eason
2017: Davis Mills, Hunter Johnson, Tua Tagovailoa
2018: Trevor Lawrence, JT Daniels, Justin Fields
2019: Spencer Rattler (lost starting job), Bo Nix (inconsistent and injured)

Many of these guys were drafted in later rounds, but not in top QB conversation. Mills, for instance, was debated as being the "best of the rest" outside the top group this past year.