[cardcrimson]

Niners are 5.5 point underdogs, and New Orleans is a 4.5 point favorite.

Historically, that translates to a 31% chance of winning for the Niners and a 67% chance of winning for New Orleans.  Thus, the chance of a Niner win or a New Orleans tie or loss is 60%.  So a bit better than your subjective feeling.

BC

The 49ers not making the playoffs requires both the Rams winning (69% chance) and Saints winning (67% chance).

So isn't the likelihood of the 49ers making the playoffs [1 - (0.69 x 0.67)] which equals 53.77% ?

Way too advanced math for me…..

Really impressive calculations and analysis from a Stanford board. Nerd Nation? What a hoot!

[cardcrimson]

Niners are 5.5 point underdogs, and New Orleans is a 4.5 point favorite.

Historically, that translates to a 31% chance of winning for the Niners and a 67% chance of winning for New Orleans.  Thus, the chance of a Niner win or a New Orleans tie or loss is 60%.  So a bit better than your subjective feeling.

BC

The 49ers not making the playoffs requires both the Rams winning (69% chance) and Saints winning (67% chance).

So isn't the likelihood of the 49ers making the playoffs [1 - (0.69 x 0.67)] which equals 53.77% ?

Way too advanced math for me…..

Really impressive calculations and analysis from a Stanford board. Nerd Nation? What a hoot!