[DC 86]

Deebo is Superman. I'm with ya Hogge re Jimmy. Would love to see the dilemma. Lex, is there any way out of the $27 mill problem?

I'm not sure why this is called a "problem". We're in a world where Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff all have contracts that average over $32 million per year. If Garopollo was a free agent on the open market he would make at least $27 million per year. It may be to SF's advantage to trade Garopollo, but keeping both him and Lance (who is on a rookie contract, $7.75 million cap hit next year) is a manageable option as well. For contrast, Kirk Cousins alone has a $45 million cap hit next year.

SF is in a great position where they can trade Garopollo if it makes sense, or keep him without being in an onerous salary cap situation. Note that the NFL salary cap for each team is rising by $25.7 million next year to $208.2 million, a fairly significant 14.1% increase.

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Good chance they will have to release him. That’s only a 1.4 million cap hit.  It’s not JG’s fault that the Niners overpaid him.  (I read that his cap hit is the highest percentage of any player in the league.). He’s a solid QB in the 8 games or so a year that he’s actually healthy.  But he’s not worth anything close to $27 million.  And that, coupled with a franchise decision to trade multiple first rounders for Lance, leads to the obvious conclusion that he will be gone next year.

Strongly disagree, there's a good market for him. His health is a wild card which could make him untradeable, but if he checks out physically his salary is actually reasonable relative to his ability, and there will be teams willing to give up a day two pick for him.

We have very different perceptions of his market so we'll have to wait and see. I do agree that he's likely playing elsewhere next year.

Agreed.  Right now, he's not even a Top 10 paid QB (#10 is Matt Ryan at $30 million), but he's #9 in regular season passer rating and #13 in QBR.  Seems appropriate.

I don't think that analysis is the correct one. 
The correct one is what would a team sign Jimmy for if they could do so on the open market?  
Do you think anyone would throw $27M at him for one year?  I do not.  
Pay $27M AND give up a R3 draft pick for him?  Sounds crazy to me.

And let's be real, passer rating isn't the definitive measure to rank NFL QBs.  There are 15 other QBs teams would take over Jimmy.  Off the top of my head:  Mahomes, Allen, Burrows, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Herbert, Carr, Dak, Murray, Wilson, Cousins, Jackson, Mills, Lawrence, and Goff.  There may be others (Mac Jones?); and you might dispute one or two from that list.  But still, the point holds.  Jimmy ain't 10th best QB in league despite passer rating.

The problem with your analysis is that Burrows, Herbert, Murray, Jackson, Mills and Lawrence are all on artificially low rookie contracts. If they were free agents they would all (with the exception of Mills, who is certainly not valued higher than Garopollo by anyone at the moment) be paid $35 million+, meaning that Garopollo's $27 million would actually be somewhere between market and an underpay. He has the 12th highest projected 2022 QB salary but if those players on rookie contracts (and others) were declared free agents and able to negotiate on the open market then JG's salary next year would rank somewhere around 18th - 20th. Also consider that the NFL salary cap going up a lot next year is going to result in a slew of overpaid free agents, making many existing contracts look like bargains.

I'm very confident that either SF or another team (giving up at least a third round pick) will be paying $27 million for JG's services next year, we shall see.

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That's what I was thinking, that they could renegotiate and restructure the K, and I don't think it's out of the question if he plays even just fairly well in the next (hopefully) two games.

Renegotiate and restructure how exactly? the only way would be by extending him to a long term contract, which wouldn't be for a lower value. That makes no sense unless they have already determined that Lance is a complete bust (very unlikely) and that they won't be re-signing him beyond his rookie contract. You can't have two quarterbacks earning starter salaries.

[DC 86]

Deebo is Superman. I'm with ya Hogge re Jimmy. Would love to see the dilemma. Lex, is there any way out of the $27 mill problem?

I'm not sure why this is called a "problem". We're in a world where Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff all have contracts that average over $32 million per year. If Garopollo was a free agent on the open market he would make at least $27 million per year. It may be to SF's advantage to trade Garopollo, but keeping both him and Lance (who is on a rookie contract, $7.75 million cap hit next year) is a manageable option as well. For contrast, Kirk Cousins alone has a $45 million cap hit next year.

SF is in a great position where they can trade Garopollo if it makes sense, or keep him without being in an onerous salary cap situation. Note that the NFL salary cap for each team is rising by $25.7 million next year to $208.2 million, a fairly significant 14.1% increase.

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Good chance they will have to release him. That’s only a 1.4 million cap hit.  It’s not JG’s fault that the Niners overpaid him.  (I read that his cap hit is the highest percentage of any player in the league.). He’s a solid QB in the 8 games or so a year that he’s actually healthy.  But he’s not worth anything close to $27 million.  And that, coupled with a franchise decision to trade multiple first rounders for Lance, leads to the obvious conclusion that he will be gone next year.

Strongly disagree, there's a good market for him. His health is a wild card which could make him untradeable, but if he checks out physically his salary is actually reasonable relative to his ability, and there will be teams willing to give up a day two pick for him.

We have very different perceptions of his market so we'll have to wait and see. I do agree that he's likely playing elsewhere next year.

Agreed.  Right now, he's not even a Top 10 paid QB (#10 is Matt Ryan at $30 million), but he's #9 in regular season passer rating and #13 in QBR.  Seems appropriate.

I don't think that analysis is the correct one. 
The correct one is what would a team sign Jimmy for if they could do so on the open market?  
Do you think anyone would throw $27M at him for one year?  I do not.  
Pay $27M AND give up a R3 draft pick for him?  Sounds crazy to me.

And let's be real, passer rating isn't the definitive measure to rank NFL QBs.  There are 15 other QBs teams would take over Jimmy.  Off the top of my head:  Mahomes, Allen, Burrows, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Herbert, Carr, Dak, Murray, Wilson, Cousins, Jackson, Mills, Lawrence, and Goff.  There may be others (Mac Jones?); and you might dispute one or two from that list.  But still, the point holds.  Jimmy ain't 10th best QB in league despite passer rating.

The problem with your analysis is that Burrows, Herbert, Murray, Jackson, Mills and Lawrence are all on artificially low rookie contracts. If they were free agents they would all (with the exception of Mills, who is certainly not valued higher than Garopollo by anyone at the moment) be paid $35 million+, meaning that Garopollo's $27 million would actually be somewhere between market and an underpay. He has the 12th highest projected 2022 QB salary but if those players on rookie contracts (and others) were declared free agents and able to negotiate on the open market then JG's salary next year would rank somewhere around 18th - 20th. Also consider that the NFL salary cap going up a lot next year is going to result in a slew of overpaid free agents, making many existing contracts look like bargains.

I'm very confident that either SF or another team (giving up at least a third round pick) will be paying $27 million for JG's services next year, we shall see.

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That's what I was thinking, that they could renegotiate and restructure the K, and I don't think it's out of the question if he plays even just fairly well in the next (hopefully) two games.

Renegotiate and restructure how exactly? the only way would be by extending him to a long term contract, which wouldn't be for a lower value. That makes no sense unless they have already determined that Lance is a complete bust (very unlikely) and that they won't be re-signing him beyond his rookie contract. You can't have two quarterbacks earning starter salaries.