(01-25-2022, 02:36 PM)Phogge Wrote: Gausman just wasn’t the same guy in the second half. Let’s wait until the season starts before we panic guys.
My point isn't about Gausman specifically, it's about operating as a small/medium-revenue team instead of as a high-revenue team.
In any case, with regard to Gausman's 1H/2H splits, at first glance his superficial second half numbers are a big drop-off (5-3, 4.42 ERA vs 9-3, 1.73 ERA) but underlying metrics show that he was very lucky 1H and very unlucky 2H.
His BAbib (batting average on ball in play) was .212 in the first half (unsustainably lucky) and .352 in the second half (quite unlucky) in the second half. Meanwhile his K/9 rate improved slightly (10.44 to 10.94) and his BB/9 rate also improved slightly (2.35 to 2.33). His xFIP (expected fielding-independent ERA, which normalizes for homer luck and only considers factors within the pitcher's control) was 3.31 in the first half and dropped to 3.23 in the second half.
Gausman will almost certainly regress this year, but last year's 1H/2H drop-off is mostly an illusion.