Great for us to be having this discussion at a high level.
Obviously, one example doesn't make a general rule, but we've had an example of two people competing this week. who changed or are changing their gender
Why didn't she compete in the 1000 and 1650 where she was a hands-down favorite to blow the field away? She was entered in the 1650 but apparently scratched it ahead of the 1st heat. Her seed time was 22 seconds ahead of what won the event.
EDIT: I understand now. Without her, her teammates won 1,2,4,8 in the 1000 and 1,3,5,6 in the 1650
As I already mentioned, it seemed her lead-off leg on Wednesday's 800 Free Relay was pedestrian for her. She went out in a 51.5 and came back in a 53.0. That's a fairly even split (remember, in swimming you get a big advantage with a start). It was a tight finish at the end of her leg. She was first to touch, but only by 0.15. Her team finished second by 1.7 seconds. But her time earlier in the year was 2.5 seconds faster. If she was still training hard, that could explain it, but just barely.
Her only individual swim on Thursday was the 500 free, where her time was 3 seconds slower than earlier in the season, but still won by 7 seconds. She already had a NCAA A time (meaning she's guaranteed a spot at Nationals). Her 2nd, 3rd, and 4th 50s were 28.4 each, while the next 5 were 27.9, with a final 26.8. I'm not real familiar with swimming the 500, but that looks like she took it out intentionally slow and had a good bit left over. That seems consistent with cruising to a victory. In her December swim, her splits were consistent (except 1st & last), 27.63 to 27.81.
She had a 22.61 on the 2nd leg of the 200 Free relay. Since Thomas isn't a sprinter, it isn't surprising that 5 swimmers were faster than her, including Iszac Henig who is transitioning to the male gender and won the 50y Free in 21.93. (Henig reportedly has delayed hormone treatments to allow continuing to compete as a female.)
On Friday, Lia Thomas hadn't entered the 1000 Free which would have been the first race of the finals, only the 200 Free and a leg on the 400 Medley Relay. If you had a burning desire to swim the 200 where you have a relatively easy win, rather than the 1000 where you have a trivial win, ok. She already had an A time (1:41.93 (50.66,51.23)), so she didn't need to swim the 200 in this meet to get to the NCAAs in the event.
In the prelims, she went 52.44 and 52.47 (1:44.91), effectively a negative split 200 and qualified first by 1.7 seconds. But in the finals, she was 52.14 - 50.98 (1:43.12). That's a crazy negative split. and over a second slower than her time earlier in the year. In the finals, the next closes delta time between the two 100s was 1.2 seconds slower in the 2nd 100 than her first.
At the end of Friday night, Thomas swam a 49.83 (relay start 24.02, 25.81) for the free leg of the 400 MR. She finished 0.15 out of 3rd, so she was in a tight race (but 4 lanes away). That's an incredibly slow time for her. And, on a relay, taking her team down with her.
On Saturday, Thomas swam the individual 100 Free against Iszac Henig. Thomas won with a 23.17-24.46 (47.63), while Henzig swam 23.06-24.76 (47.82). 3rd place was one second behind them. (I can't imagine swimming the last leg of a 400MR 2.2 seconds slower than I could swim individually.) These swims weren't NCAA A times, but it likely will get them to swim at Nationals.
At the end of the night, Thomas swam a 23.38-24.76 (48.14) on the lead-off leg of the 400 Free Relay. Did they put her first to get clean water, or to give her another chance to make an A time?
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I find Thomas's performance to be beyond puzzling. First there's the bypassing two events that she would have easy victories in and apparently concentrating on the 100 Free where it was a toss-up, when Thomas has traditionally been a long-distance swimmer. Then there's the insanely negative split on the 200 free and still being a second slower than her season's best. (I would call that playing with your opponents.) Then there's the incredibly slow swim, costing her relay a 3rd place finish or even a 2nd place finish.
I considered whether she is no longer capable of swimming the times she swam as recently as December. Perhaps, but that's her fastest 100 Free as a female by quite a bit, and is getting into the range (0.5s slower) of her best as a male (47.15 in 2017).
I considered whether she might be sick, resulting in a short-term inability to do the longer races. But the very negative split would be hard to do if you were sick. I could see that for whatever reason she is going out slow and swimming a much faster back half -- but only on some of her races.
I considered whether she is concealing what she is capable of ("sandbagging"). Perhaps she only swam the 100 Free just fast enough to win. But then why would she allow the relay to lose 3rd?
I considered whether she is trying to win the 100, 200, 500, and/or 1650 at Nationals (I believe someone can only swim 3 events). I don't think she has the speed to win the 100 (her time this weekend would be seeded 11th). She's currently ranked 1st in the 200(Dec. time) and 500 (Dec. time). No time ranked in the 1000 but her reported time would be ranked 3rd (not swum at Nationals). 10th in the 1650 (only swim was December). As covered earlier, Will Thomas's times are all very much faster than the top women's times in the 500-1650.
Obviously, one example doesn't make a general rule, but we've had an example of two people competing this week. who changed or are changing their gender
Why didn't she compete in the 1000 and 1650 where she was a hands-down favorite to blow the field away? She was entered in the 1650 but apparently scratched it ahead of the 1st heat. Her seed time was 22 seconds ahead of what won the event.
EDIT: I understand now. Without her, her teammates won 1,2,4,8 in the 1000 and 1,3,5,6 in the 1650
As I already mentioned, it seemed her lead-off leg on Wednesday's 800 Free Relay was pedestrian for her. She went out in a 51.5 and came back in a 53.0. That's a fairly even split (remember, in swimming you get a big advantage with a start). It was a tight finish at the end of her leg. She was first to touch, but only by 0.15. Her team finished second by 1.7 seconds. But her time earlier in the year was 2.5 seconds faster. If she was still training hard, that could explain it, but just barely.
Her only individual swim on Thursday was the 500 free, where her time was 3 seconds slower than earlier in the season, but still won by 7 seconds. She already had a NCAA A time (meaning she's guaranteed a spot at Nationals). Her 2nd, 3rd, and 4th 50s were 28.4 each, while the next 5 were 27.9, with a final 26.8. I'm not real familiar with swimming the 500, but that looks like she took it out intentionally slow and had a good bit left over. That seems consistent with cruising to a victory. In her December swim, her splits were consistent (except 1st & last), 27.63 to 27.81.
She had a 22.61 on the 2nd leg of the 200 Free relay. Since Thomas isn't a sprinter, it isn't surprising that 5 swimmers were faster than her, including Iszac Henig who is transitioning to the male gender and won the 50y Free in 21.93. (Henig reportedly has delayed hormone treatments to allow continuing to compete as a female.)
On Friday, Lia Thomas hadn't entered the 1000 Free which would have been the first race of the finals, only the 200 Free and a leg on the 400 Medley Relay. If you had a burning desire to swim the 200 where you have a relatively easy win, rather than the 1000 where you have a trivial win, ok. She already had an A time (1:41.93 (50.66,51.23)), so she didn't need to swim the 200 in this meet to get to the NCAAs in the event.
In the prelims, she went 52.44 and 52.47 (1:44.91), effectively a negative split 200 and qualified first by 1.7 seconds. But in the finals, she was 52.14 - 50.98 (1:43.12). That's a crazy negative split. and over a second slower than her time earlier in the year. In the finals, the next closes delta time between the two 100s was 1.2 seconds slower in the 2nd 100 than her first.
At the end of Friday night, Thomas swam a 49.83 (relay start 24.02, 25.81) for the free leg of the 400 MR. She finished 0.15 out of 3rd, so she was in a tight race (but 4 lanes away). That's an incredibly slow time for her. And, on a relay, taking her team down with her.
On Saturday, Thomas swam the individual 100 Free against Iszac Henig. Thomas won with a 23.17-24.46 (47.63), while Henzig swam 23.06-24.76 (47.82). 3rd place was one second behind them. (I can't imagine swimming the last leg of a 400MR 2.2 seconds slower than I could swim individually.) These swims weren't NCAA A times, but it likely will get them to swim at Nationals.
At the end of the night, Thomas swam a 23.38-24.76 (48.14) on the lead-off leg of the 400 Free Relay. Did they put her first to get clean water, or to give her another chance to make an A time?
----
I find Thomas's performance to be beyond puzzling. First there's the bypassing two events that she would have easy victories in and apparently concentrating on the 100 Free where it was a toss-up, when Thomas has traditionally been a long-distance swimmer. Then there's the insanely negative split on the 200 free and still being a second slower than her season's best. (I would call that playing with your opponents.) Then there's the incredibly slow swim, costing her relay a 3rd place finish or even a 2nd place finish.
I considered whether she is no longer capable of swimming the times she swam as recently as December. Perhaps, but that's her fastest 100 Free as a female by quite a bit, and is getting into the range (0.5s slower) of her best as a male (47.15 in 2017).
I considered whether she might be sick, resulting in a short-term inability to do the longer races. But the very negative split would be hard to do if you were sick. I could see that for whatever reason she is going out slow and swimming a much faster back half -- but only on some of her races.
I considered whether she is concealing what she is capable of ("sandbagging"). Perhaps she only swam the 100 Free just fast enough to win. But then why would she allow the relay to lose 3rd?
I considered whether she is trying to win the 100, 200, 500, and/or 1650 at Nationals (I believe someone can only swim 3 events). I don't think she has the speed to win the 100 (her time this weekend would be seeded 11th). She's currently ranked 1st in the 200(Dec. time) and 500 (Dec. time). No time ranked in the 1000 but her reported time would be ranked 3rd (not swum at Nationals). 10th in the 1650 (only swim was December). As covered earlier, Will Thomas's times are all very much faster than the top women's times in the 500-1650.